Polling Report – Biden leads by 8

A new CNN poll finds Joe Biden leads the Democratic Presidential Race with 28%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 20%, Sen. Kamala Harris At 12%, Beto O’Rourke at 11% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren At 6%.

Harris jumped the most in the CNN poll from the last poll conducted by the outfit in December. She jumped from 4% in December to 12% now, a rise of 8 points. Harris’s rise comes across the board — there is no major demographic group in which she lost support since December — but her gains are more pronounced among Democrats (+10 points) than independents (+5), liberals (+10) more than moderates or conservatives (+7), women (+9) more than men (+6), and racial and ethnic minorities (+10) more than whites (+6).

“The poll also finds enthusiasm about voting next year already outpaces the level seen for any presidential contest since the turn of this century. Four in 10 say they are ‘extremely enthusiastic’ about voting for president, far outpacing early reads in other recent presidential contests.”

“Google provided The Washington Post with U.S. search data since Jan. 1. It pools similar searches — Bernie, Bernie Sanders, Sanders, etc. — into buckets, which it then tracks. Search totals are relative to one another, with 100 being the peak interest in any of the candidates. That peak came with Harris’s initial announcement.”

“She also got another spike a few days later, corresponding with her kickoff event in Oakland. That secondary event itself generated more search interest than any other candidate except Sanders or O’Rourke.”

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds only 21% U.S. taxpayers expect to pay less income tax this year as a result of the tax reform law passed in 2017 by Republicans who promised big savings for everyday Americans.

Just prior to approval of the tax reform by Republicans, Trump said: “This is going to be one of the great gifts to the middle-income people of this country that they’ve ever gotten for Christmas.”

An analysis of polling in party nominations between 1980 and 2016 by The Economist finds this early in a cycle just 17% of polls released have correctly identified the eventual party nominee.

A new CNN poll finds 71% of Americans say the nation’s economy is in good shape, the highest share to say so since February 2001, and the best rating during Trump’s presidency by two points.

“A majority give the President positive reviews for his handling of the nation’s economy (51% approve), and his overall approval rating has ticked up to 42% in the new poll. The 51% who say they disapprove of the President’s job performance overall represent the lowest share to do so in CNN polling since the start of his presidency.”

“Trump’s 42% approval rating at this point in his presidency puts him near the bottom of the list of modern elected presidents, between President Bill Clinton in 1995 (44%) and President Ronald Reagan in 1983 (41%). Both were re-elected to second terms.”

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