Polling Report – 3/12/19

NBC News: “Forty-six percent — that’s the percentage of Democrats who backed Bernie Sanders in 2016 who say that they’ll support him in 2020, according to a new Monmouth University poll.” “And that’s compared with just 14 percent of Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton in the last election who say they’re getting behind Sanders for the upcoming nomination fight.”

So this proves that nearly half of Bernie’s support in 2016 was just anti-Hillary or anti-woman voters. So doing some math here, Bernie received 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 primary, so that means he is losing 19.78% of his support (subtracting that 46% from his 43% support), but he gaining 7.7% in support from the Hillary voters that are now supporting Bernie in 2020. So it would appear that Bernie’s ceiling as of now is 30.92% of the vote among primary voters. Of course, this is just back of the napkin math, and the numbers are ever changing, but it gives a good idea of where Bernie stands. He is not the runaway front-runner, but he has got a sizable chunk of the vote that will keep him competitive as the field narrows.

“With about half of his previous coalition scattering between other candidates like Joe Biden (15 percent), Kamala Harris (8 percent) and Elizabeth Warren (6 percent), it’s not clear that Sanders will enjoy the same level of support from Democrats four years after his insurgent bid. But, the pollsters note, that assessment assumes that Biden is in the mix — and maintains his expected high levels of backing from Dems after he gets in.”

Politico: “The logjam of nearly two dozen declared or likely Democratic presidential candidates is overwhelming public pollsters trying to measure the 2020 primary. New surveys are cramming up to 23 Democrats into their questionnaires after the [DNC] set a low, 1 percent polling threshold to gain admittance into the party’s first primary debates.”

“The miles-long list of candidates has created an unusual set of methodological challenges for pollsters already battling declining engagement with their surveys. But pollsters say the criteria also put them in a no-win situation: A pollster’s decision about whether to include a candidate or not could be a make-or-break choice for that campaign, especially the lesser-known and first-time White House hopefuls hoping to make the debate stage.”

A new Politico/Morning Consult poll shows that President Trump “has failed to build support for his emergency declaration in the face of congressional opposition, with the results essentially unchanged since he signed an order to reallocate military funds toward erecting a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.”

“Only 38% of voters support the declaration, the poll shows, down 1 point over the past three weeks. In the new poll, 52% of voters are opposed to the declaration, up 1 point from last month.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

3 comments on “Polling Report – 3/12/19

  1. The more important numbers are the number of Sanders supporters who will support the Democratic Party candidate if Sanders is not the nominee.


    • cassandram

      Which basically says that there was a cohort of Sanders supporters in 2016 who heard the racial resentment message from Trump and voted for it. Those are not votes Dems will get back or should even try to get back.

  2. cassandram

    So this is a month old (and may have been here before), but an AZ poll had Biden and the GRIFTUS tied (with 7% undecided) for President. This looks like one more indicator that Arizona is getting more purple.

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