A new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan finds 49% of voters say they will definitely vote to replace President Trump and another 16% say they will consider voting for someone else. Only 31% said they will definitely vote to re-elect Trump.
Key finding: “Self-described independent voters are driving down Trump’s numbers. Among independents, 44 percent say they will definitely vote for someone else and 27 percent say they will consider backing another candidate, while only 18 percent say they would definitely vote to re-elect.”
A new Monmouth poll finds President Trump leads former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld (R), who is challenging him in the Republican presidential primaries, 74% to 8% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in a one-on-one matchup.
Trump leads Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who is toying with the idea of a run, 75% to 6%.
Jonathan Bernstein: “With polls showing Biden and Sanders on top – not just nationwide, but in the early-voting states as well – I’ve seen a few pundits wondering whether the contest is less open than it once seemed. I think that’s a mistake. Yes, it’s better to have good poll numbers than bad. But we’ve already seen one candidate, Beto O’Rourke, have a polling surge. We’re almost certain to see others. If history tells us anything, it’s that almost any candidate can have at least a temporary surge, usually accompanied by a round of media attention. Many of those surges eventually collapse, but sometimes – think Barack Obama in 2008, or Sanders in 2016 – they persist.”
Charlie Cook: “It is very clear, listening to Trump as well as to GOP strategists, that they are building up democratic socialism as the straw man to knock down in this campaign. Their goal obviously is to make electing a Democratic president an unacceptable alternative to Trump. So it basically comes down to whether Democrats want this election to be about Trump or about embarking on a new and different philosophical direction. One of those paths seems to be very risky.”