Here are some polling nuggets from the past week:
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds just 41% of voters say they would re-elect President Trump next year, while 48% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate.
Key findings: 58% don’t think he’s been honest and truthful regarding the Russia probe and 60% disapprove of his recent national emergency declaration to build a border wall.
“But Democrats who want to defeat Trump have hurdles of their own. The president’s job rating remains stable with nearly 90 percent of Republicans approving of his job. And a majority of Americans remain confident in the economy, believing that there won’t be a recession in the next year.”
The same poll finds more Americans see the Democratic Party’s positions on climate change, health care, abortion and immigration as being “in the mainstream” than the Republican Party’s positions on those issues. And on fiscal issues like taxes and spending, a similar share of Americans — about half — view the Democratic and Republican parties as being in the mainstream.
TEXAS—Quinnipiac—Trump 47, Biden 46 / Trump 47, Sanders 45 / Trump 47, O’Rourke 46 / Trump 46, Castro 41 / Trump 48, Warren 41 / Trump 48, Harris 41
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY—Univ. of New Hampshire-–Sanders 26 / Biden 22 / Harris 10 / Warren 7 / O’Rourke 5 / Klobuchar 4 / Booker 3
“But Democrats have history on their side: the House majority hasn’t flipped twice in a row since 1954 and hasn’t flipped during a presidential cycle since 1952. Democrats have gained House seats in five of the past six presidential elections (save for 2004, when Republicans drew a favorable new map in Texas) and in seven of the past eight presidential cycles, the net partisan seat shift in the House has been in the single digits.”
“It’s tough to see Republicans winning the House back unless President Trump’s approval rating is significantly higher than today’s 42 percent come 2020… It’s too early to offer a range of gains and losses, but Democrats begin the cycle with an edge – one they hope can sustain them until districts are redrawn in 2021.”
Key realization just in (LOL): National polls comparing Trump to any other candidate are totally and utterly useless. It’s a state by state election. 270 wins.