The 2020 field is so big that we already entering the Winnowing Phase where potential candidates start dropping out when they realize either that their families want no part of a presidential run or that they have no real shot to win for a variety of reasons, or both. Asshole and con artist Michael Avenatti has already dropped out. Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is calling close allies over the past few days and informing them he is not running for president in 2020, Politico reports. Governor Andrew Cuomo says he is not running. Same with New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.
The field is so large that it helps to create “lanes” to classify the candidates. Let’s do it first by the “job” or “position” they hold.
Obama Administration: Biden (DE), AG Eric Holder (VA), Secretary Julian Castro (TX)
Senators: Elizabeth Warren (MA), Kamala Harris (CA), Cory Booker (NJ), Sherrod Brown (OH), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Bernie Sanders (VT)
Governors: John Hickenlooper (CO), Steve Bullock (MT), Terry McAuliffe (VA)
Congress: Beto O’Rourke (TX), John Delaney (MD), Tim Murphy (OH), Seth Moulton (MA), Tulsi Gabbard (HI)
Mayors: Michael Bloomberg (NYC), Eric Garcetti (Los Angeles), Mitch Landrieu (New Orleans)
Billionaires: Tom Steyer (Hedge fund), Howard Schultz (Starbucks)
Other: State Senator Richard Ojeda (WV)
Next, to the extent we can put ideological labels on candidates, let’s classify them as such. This is going to be a somewhat meaningless exercise since ProgressivePunch and other organizations label Kamala Harris as the most progressive Senator based on her voting record, but I would not classify her, based on my “eye” test, as being such. Indeed, the term progressive has become so overused that I feel people use it when they really are talking about liberals. I am a liberal. I can be a progressive at times based on some issues. But in the Bernie Sander era, being a progressive really means being a leftist or a purist who disdains Democrats more so than Republicans. So that shrinks that category in my view.
And yes, there will be cross over candidates that can be labeled progressive, liberal or centrist. I will label them to be Cross-overs. And when I have no clue, I will put that candidate in an unknown category.
Progressive: Sanders, Warren
Liberal: Holder, Booker, Harris, Brown, Klobuchar
Cross Over: O’Rourke, Gabbard, Biden
Centrist: Bullock, Bloomberg, Landrieu, Ojeda, Murphy, Moulton, McAuliffe
Unknown: Castro, Garcetti, Steyer, Schultz, Delaney
So take the poll:
Who do you currently favor as the 2020 Democratic Nominee?
- Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (50%, 134 Votes)
- Senator Bernie Sanders (29%, 78 Votes)
- Congressman Beto O'Rourke (10%, 27 Votes)
- Senator Kamala Harris (4%, 11 Votes)
- Former Vice President Joe Biden (3%, 7 Votes)
- Senator Amy Klobuchar (1%, 4 Votes)
- Senator Sherrod Brown (1%, 2 Votes)
- State Senator Richard Ojeda (0%, 1 Votes)
- Governor Steve Bullock (0%, 1 Votes)
- Former Attorney General Eric Holder (0%, 1 Votes)
- Senator Elizabeth Warren (0%, 1 Votes)
- Former Mayor and HUD Secretary Julian Castro (0%, 1 Votes)
- Billionaire Howard Schultz (0%, 0 Votes)
- Billionaire Tom Steyer (0%, 0 Votes)
- Mayor Mitch Landrieu (0%, 0 Votes)
- Mayor Eric Garcetti (0%, 0 Votes)
- Mayor Michael Bloomberg (0%, 0 Votes)
- Governor John Hickenlooper (0%, 0 Votes)
- Congressman Seth Moulton (0%, 0 Votes)
- Congressman Tim Murphy (0%, 0 Votes)
- Congressman John Delaney (0%, 0 Votes)
- Senator Cory Booker (0%, 0 Votes)
- Governor Terry McAuliffe (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 268
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I’m waiting to hear from everyone, but my initial favorites are (in no particular order): Beto O’Rouke, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar.
I feel like I need to see more of them to make an informed decision. Frankly, I want someone who is going to have appeal to the people and win; that matters more than a specific ideological category or job title. At the moment, that seems to be Beto, but someone else could rise up and grab the spotlight and impress me. Beto has the advantage of not having too extensive of a record to run against – Senators and Representatives always have a “voted for it before I voted against it” issue or two, or like Bernie have an issue where they are stuck because of peculiarities of their states (I’m thinking guns with him – he’s weaker there than others). It’s not really PC to say, but I do think age is a factor too that hurts a few folks who would otherwise be strong – the last Democrat over the age of 60 elected was Truman, and he was essentially “reelected.” All others were under 55. Warren would be over 70, with Biden and Sanders closer to 80. I think Democrats need to be looking more to the future.
I have a rule: no one over 70. So that eliminates Biden, Warren and Sanders. My list is 1. Beto, 2. Harris, 3. Klobuchar.
So i cant give a “hard no” as i will 100% vote for whoever the nominee is… even if it’s ButHerEmails.
that said.
Firm pass on ANY of the centrists or billionaires or former past administration people.
No to centrists for obvious reasons.
Pass on billionaires. Wanna guarantee young people check out? make s choose between 2 people who can buy and sell our entire lives. (i know trump doesn’t actually have any money, but optics are optics)
As far as former admin officials, the next election needs to be a clear break from the petty politics of the past. It means breaking some eggs in order to scramble that “new deal” omelette.
I also say pass on Sanders or Warren. Here is something that bothers me about Barack Obama. He’s 57 and out of government. He isn’t a senator anymore. If we elevate another staunch progressive to president before purging the country of the GOP and shitty dems like Carper and Schumer, we waste talent. I want Warren in top party leadership. Majority leader would be nice. Screw “seniority”. Sanders’ cranky old man schtick wont be enough of a counterpoint to trmp this time around and frankly, I dont think he will hold up to any actual attacks. Clinton never really hit him hard, and he never had to actually face the GOP.
So that leaves me with the liberals. I like Harris most in the group. Brown, like Warren, must stay in the senate. Im too lazy to look up Ohio’s rules and if the replacement has to be of the same party as the departing Senator, or if it will be up to the MAGAT governor, but i expect MAGATs to try and change the rules to their advantage. I think Harris has a bigger national profile than Klobuchar, although, I’ll admit I haven’t looked too much into the latter.
So who’s the veep? Mitch Landrieu or Beto. They both seem to know how to connect with that vaunted “southern working class wink wink” group, but are also genuine liberals. I hate that is a consideration, but if you can do it without selling out, do it. Landrieu’s cred can be summed up in his speech about the traitor statues in his city… he’s like what Bill Clinton always pretended to be.
Harris/Mitch 2020 If it is a centrist, re-election is guaranteed.
I’m not sure I’m ready for this yet. This pool of candidates has a way to go before I can think about who might be a good choice. I want to see what issues they engage on, how they engage and what fundraising they can manage. And, frankly, I really want to hear how any of these will specifically counter the nationalist bullshit that got bought in 2016. And gets excused by a couple of candidates on this list.
Anyone who has been paying attention should already know which candidates are acceptable, and which are not. It should be painfully obvious that if another unacceptable candidate is pre-selected, that many voters on the left will not support them and the country will get four more years of Trump. Learn a lesson from 2016… that running a greater evil against another greater evil will not win, because your base does not align itself with greater evil.
As for me, I would support either Bernie Sanders or Tulsi Gabbard.
I’m gonna leave this Twitter thread right here on Gabbard’s “progressive” cred. Altho reports have her making a Yes I’m Running decision soon, I’d bet she won’t be in the pack a year from now.
Regarding her “progressive cred”…
Ending US backed war of regime change that creates refugees >>>>>> creating refugees.
I would take you up on that bet.
Tulsi Gabbard all the way!
Tulsi 2020. No dogshit neoliberal warmongers this time.
Bernie Tulsa Warren. Bottom line the’re the only progressive worth voting for all the rest take corporate cash. Even Warren is a push on that one but she is consistent I can forgive her some. Kamila is too compromised by her past Biden is a non starter of more of the same. If the last election wasn’t a sign of no more business as usual then there is none. FYI if you fail to see we are no longer putting up with empty promises. No more politics as usual give the people what they want. There will be no crowning dynasties or cults of personality. This you ignore at your own peril we will toe no lines were done with that.
I do get a pretty good chuckle out of the “Either this person is the candidate or we’re gonna burn this motherfucker down!” posturing already taking shape in 2018… Jill Stein may still have some votes left should we not nominate a white male or white female in their early (Warren) or late (Bernie) 70s!
What would be more refreshing is if “progressives”, of which I’d like to think I can count myself as, understand that the best course of action is to advocate and push for their preferred candidate as hard as possible in the primary… but come the general election, should their candidate not have won the nomination, they turn their energy and advocacy to helping whomever the Democratic nominee is…
Because if something thinks that it’s “Bernie-Tulsi-Warren or Trump”, then they’re a special kind of crazy to think four more years of Trump is an acceptable outcome over a Democratic administration led by Harris or Biden or Booker…
As I said above, the lesson that should have been learned in 2016 was that “any blue will do”, will no longer do. Just because Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris may be acceptable candidates to core Democrats, does not mean that progressives who are pro-working class and/or anti-war will abandon their values and vote for the party of Schumer and Pelosi.
And please do not consider Cory Booker who voted against Sanders’ prescription medicine bill, or Beto O’Rourke who is an AIPAC darling and pro-TPP, or Elizabeth Warren as her foreign policy is too militant as viable candidates. Progressives will not vote for warmongering corporate Democrats in numbers that will defeat Trump.
The democrats would be better served nominating a governor such as bullock or Hickenlooper rather than go the young inexperienced Senator or Representative route ala Bill Clinton in 92. How in the hell would Beto beat Trump when he couldn’t even beat Ted Cruz?