“Republicans would have to sweep virtually all of the 22 races currently rated as toss-ups to hold onto their House majority — a nearly insurmountable challenge — according to a new Politico analysis.”
“Democrats have pulled ahead in nearly enough races to claim a majority of the 435 seats up for grabs in the first national election of Donald Trump’s presidency, with Politico’s final race ratings showing 216 seats in the Democratic column — those are either solidly Democratic, likely Democratic or at least leaning Democratic.”
Playbook: “The general consensus among Republicans is that they will lose the House, and end up in at least a five-seat minority — that would correspond to a 28-seat loss. Senior Republicans tell us that even in a worst-case scenario, they do not expect to lose 40 seats. A prescient prediction or famous last words? Only time will tell. We spoke to several senior Republican lawmakers yesterday, and only one made the case that the GOP will keep the House.”
“Youth turnout rates in the midterm early vote are up by 125 percent compared to 2014, according to Catalist, a voter database servicing progressive organizations — an eye-popping and historically high figure, say strategists on both the left and the right,” the Washington Post reports.
“Young Americans ages 18 to 29 who say they are definitely voting tilt leftward, according to polls. But the data also shows young Republicans are bubbling with enthusiasm headed into tomorrow.”
How to watch the midterms (an hour-by-hour guide) —> https://t.co/GRDYZnujVg
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 5, 2018
Washington Post: “The Trump administration is bracing for a massive staff shake-up in the weeks following the midterm elections, as the fates of a number of Cabinet secretaries and top White House aides are increasingly uncertain heading into a potentially perilous time for President Trump.”
Miami Herald: “Early voting surged to its highest levels yet in Florida’s biggest counties on Saturday, giving Democrats new hope for a ‘blue wave’ that could catapult Andrew Gillum to the governor’s mansion and keep Bill Nelson in the U.S. Senate. Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough and Orange, the five biggest ‘blue’ counties, all reported their highest one-day early voting totals of the 2018 campaign.”
Donald Trump’s midterm strategy is pure identity politics because identity politics is all he knows, and all his base wants. https://t.co/iztOWuIbwF
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) November 5, 2018
“As voters and campaigns around the country get ready for Tuesday’s climactic midterm elections, the candidates for governor of Georgia are already preparing for four weeks of overtime… Under Georgia law, if no general election candidate secures a majority, the top two finishers advance to a runoff, which would take place on December 4 for this year’s governor’s race,” Politico reports.
“There has never been a general election runoff for governor in Georgia. But while both Abrams and Kemp have stubbornly maintained that they are focused on winning outright on Tuesday, behind the scenes, their campaigns are already laying groundwork for an extra 28 days on the trail — assembling legal teams for potential legal fights over Tuesday’s vote and stockpiling money to jumpstart a runoff campaign.”
Kansas gubernatorial candidate Kris Kobach (R), who has close ties to President Trump, “has accepted financial donations from white nationalist sympathizers and has for more than a decade been affiliated with groups espousing white supremacist views,” The Guardian reports.
If Republicans hold the House, it means unshackled Trumpian ethno-nationalism and self-dealing.
A validation of xenophobic panic and naked authoritarian abuses for campaign purposes.
More plutocracy and inequality.
Defeat the lies. Vote.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 5, 2018
Jennifer Duffy: “One interesting phenomenon in Senate elections is that the races in the Toss Up column never break down the middle; one party wins a majority of them.”
“Going back 10 cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of Toss Up seats one party won was in 2002 when Republicans won 67 percent (6 of 9 races). In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party took 89 percent of the contests in Toss Up. In 2004, Republicans won 8 of 9 races, but in 2006, Democrats took 8 of 9 races. In 2014, Republicans won 8 of 9 contests. That there were nine races in Toss Up in all three years and there are nine this year is purely a coincidence.”
President Trump claimed he is not concerned about House Democrats obtaining and releasing his tax returns if they win the House majority in Tuesday’s midterm elections, Roll Call reports. Said Trump: “I don’t care. They can do whatever they want, and I can do whatever I want.”
Oh, well, if you don’t care, you can turn them over to us immediately then.
Foxconn promised 13,000 jobs in Wisconsin and then decided (!) to automate the factory, which will require only 3,000 “knowledge workers.” Great cautionary tale about technology, jobs, and how Wisconsin got bamboozled. https://t.co/zYeiXTKYoT
— Dani Rodrik (@rodrikdani) November 5, 2018
ProPublica found that Georgia officials were busily fixing problems with its voter registration just hours after the office of Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the Republican candidate for governor, had insisted the system was secure.
“Security experts frown on making such seemingly ad hoc changes close to major events, such as an election, because they can create unforeseen problems when made so quickly.”
The Atlantic: “Publicly disgraced, out of money, and facing both jail time and a suddenly-surging challenger—what was an indicted congressman to do?”
“Eventually, Hunter seemed to arrive at his answer: try to eke out a win by waging one of the most brazenly anti-Muslim smear campaigns in recent history.”
“In the final weeks of the election, Hunter has aired ominous ads warning that his Democratic opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar, is ‘working to infiltrate Congress’ with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood. He has circulated campaign literature claiming the Democrat is a ‘national security threat’ who might reveal secret U.S. troop movements to enemies abroad if elected. While Hunter himself floats conspiracy theories from the stump about a wave of ‘radical Muslims’ running for office in America, his campaign is working overtime to cast Campa-Najjar as a nefarious figure reared and raised by terrorists.”
President Trump has the *worst pre-election approval rating in modern history* immediately before his first midterm election via new @CNN poll and Gallup trend:
W Bush 63%
HW Bush 58%
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) November 5, 2018
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Our expectations for this election have been consistent for the past several months. We favor the Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate, and we expect the Democrats to pick up a significant share of governorships.”
House: “Our ratings changes leave 229 seats at least leaning to the Democrats and 206 at least leaning to the Republicans, so we are expecting the Democrats to pick up more than 30 seats (our precise ratings now show Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need). We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night. That said, it may be just as likely — or even more likely — that we’re understating the Democrats in the House. ”
Senate: “Because of the bad map Democrats faced this year, the GOP picking up seats always seemed like a possibility, even a strong possibility. Our final ratings reaffirm this potential; we have 52 Senate seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 48 at least leaning to the Democrats. If that happened, the GOP would net a seat.”
Governors: “For all the focus on the House and the Senate, the real story of the night may be in the gubernatorial races, where we see the Democrats poised to make big gains.”
In its final race ratings of the 2018 midterm election cycle, the Cook Political Report shifted nine House races toward Democrats and one in favor of Republicans.
“We rate 75 races as competitive, including 70 GOP-held seats and just five held by Democrats. A ‘Red Exodus’ is contributing to the potential ‘Blue Wave:’ of Republicans’ 41 open seats, 15 are rated as Toss Ups or worse, and another five are only in Lean Republican.”
“Just by winning all of the races at least “leaning” their way, Democrats would net 16 of the 23 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they currently hold one Toss Up, Minnesota’s 1st CD). Conversely, Republicans would likely need to win 23 of the 30 Toss Up races to keep their majority. That’s not impossible, but it’s very difficult.”
WATCH: Former President Obama surprises campaign workers with donuts Monday, thanks them for their work and discusses how "the character of the country is on the ballot." pic.twitter.com/QhFbE8q5hE
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 5, 2018
Washington Post: “By running so overtly on racially tinged messages, the GOP is putting that explosive form of politics on the ballot. If Republicans maintain control of the House, the notion of running a campaign built on blunt, race-based attacks on immigrants and minorities will have been validated. A loss, on the other hand, might prompt a number of Republicans to call for a rethinking of the party’s direction — but that would collide with a sitting president who, if anything, relishes over-the-edge rhetoric.”
Wall Street Journal: “Donors who identify their occupation as ‘retired’ gave 52% of the $326 million they contributed through Oct. 17 to Democrats, compared with 48% to Republicans… That is a reversal of their split four years ago—and it’s a record amount of midterm money from retirees.”
“This is the first midterms since the group began keeping donor industry data in 1990 in which retirees favor Democrats over Republicans.”