First, with respect to the House of Representatives, there will be a wave, and it will be shocking to our vapid punditry. The Democrats in Congress will win 73 seats in the House and will hold 266 seats, while the Republicans will hold 169 seats. The Dems will win pretty much every Lean Dem and Toss Up race, as well as several Lean R races, like PA-11 covering the area between Harrisburg and Lancaster. The Nazi, Steve King, will lose. Peter King on Long Island will get a scare, but I think he holds on.
You can zoom in and view the map here to see individual districts.
In the Senate, the Democrats will lose North Dakota, but will successfully defend every other red state seat: Tester in Montana, McCaskill in Missouri, Donnelly in Indiana, Manchin in West Virginia, Baldwin in Wisconsin, Stabenow in Michigan, Nelson in Florida, and Casey in Pennsylvania.
Democrats are going to win in Nevada and Arizona. If we stop there, then it is a 50-50 Senate that remains in Republican hands due to the tiebreaking vote of Vice President Mike Pence. But since I am predicting a wave, and since polling is showing close races in Tennessee and Texas, I am going out on a limb to predict that Dems will win in Texas and Tennessee.
Onto the Governor’s races, where the Dems are going to completely obliterate the Republicans. I was tempted to say that Democrat Paulette Jordan will win the Idaho Governor’s race, but I stepped back from the edge on that one. Still, Democrats are going to flip New Hampshire, Maine, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Alaska, New Mexico, Kanasas, Oklahoma, and Nevada. They will successfully defend Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon and Pennsylvania.
Come back on Wednesday to mock me mercilessly for my insane and overly delusional predictions. Hell, you can get a head start if you want. But I just wanted to get my actual feelings down on digital paper so I can say I told you so later.
Seriously hope your right, but I don’t do optimism. The Dems will retake the house and it will end Trump’s rubber stamp congress and open Trump to well deserved investigations. The senate may well be a bridge too far, regardless I can be happy if Beto beats the vile and ugly Cruz. But it is Texas. The same for the putrid racist from hell we call Steve King in the house, if that pig goes down party my house regardless of all the rest.
Applying the 2016 model/prediction, I’m going to take this to mean the GOP will end up with 55 senate seats and gain 5 in the House….and the dems will refuse to do anything about the Perez/Schumer/Pelosi leadership…. maybe they’ll confirm more trmp judges to be safe. fuck em.
Literally nothing would make me happier than finally being wrong about the future, I welcome mockery on Wednesday, but of course, if im right, we’re all too fucked for it to matter anymore.
Hopefully reality is somewhere between our takes.
I don’t think your predictions are that far off. I feel like if the Polls are underestimating Dem turnout and anger by 3% then it is well within reason that this isn’t a wave, it is a Tsunami. I think you are right that a few safe GOP governors go down, purely because of the R behind them that no one sees coming.
I know how mad I am, if the general public is 1/3 as mad then watch out.
It is just disappointing to live in Wilmington and not have to many repulsive Rethugs to vote out.
just Dont discount how mad the MAGATS are as well.
They are mad their revolution has been blunted. they’re mad that instead of being granted MORE leeway, #metoo has taken down some of their own.
They are mad at the fake boogymen their cult leader has given them. they’re drunk on the red meat. *another metaphor about magats.*…
I dont see anyone who voted pro-magat in 2016 sitting out this time. Tt is all and entirely on non-voters and Jill Stein voters showing up and voting for democrats. I dont have any faith in that….
There is also the most important facet of Republican cheating. they ARE cheating and they will cheat more tomorrow. Is the bluewave overwhelming enough to overcome that cheating? I dont think it is.
Sorry for bumming everyone out.
Because predictions have no value, delacrat is not making any (and neither should you).
Should be noted that the Magats are in an eternal state of agitation and eager to strike back at a changing world that has left them behind. The difference is Dem anger and determination is as high as I’ve seen it, strongly suspect we will not be outdone in getting out the vote this time around. Just as hatred and anger work for the Republicans and motivates them to the polls so to will it work for us this time.