The Polling Report for November 4, 2018

CNN issues its final election “forecasts” of the midterm election campaign.  And it is a pretty wide range that tells you pretty much nothing.

House forecast: Democrats will win 226 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 209 seats. A Democratic win of 203 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error.

Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 48 seats and 56 seats is within the margin of error.

A new CBS News poll finds that 93% of voters in battleground congressional districts say their vote in this midterm election matters just as much, if not more, than in a presidential race.  In fact, 34% of Democrats say this year’s election matters more than a presidential one, while just 16% of Republicans agree.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Democrats have a 51% to 44% advantage among likely voters in the generic congressional ballot.

“That seven-point margin, which is in line with other polls taken in the past two weeks, puts Democrats roughly within range of what they probably will need in the overall national vote for the House to capture a majority from the Republicans, based on calculations from previous midterm campaigns.”

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also finds Democrats leading by seven points, 50% to 43%.  A Harris Interactive poll finds the Dems leading by 11, 52% to 41%.

PENNSYLVANIA–Research Co.Casey 56Barletta 39
NEW YORK–Research Co.Gillibrand 60Farley 32
NEW YORK–Siena CollegeGillibrand 58Farley 35
MINNESOTA A–Research Co.Smith 49Housley 39
MINNESOTA B–Research Co.Klobuchar 53Newberger 33
MICHIGAN–Research Co.Stabenow 52James 36
CALIFORNIA–Research Co.Feinstein 47–de Leon 28
CALIFORNIA–Probolsky ResearchFeinstein 41–de Leon 35
ARIZONA–Trafalgar GroupSinema 50McSally 47
NEW MEXICO–Research & Polling, Inc.Heinrich 51Rich 31
IOWA–Selzer & CompanyHubbell 46Reynolds 44
PENNSYLVANIA–Research Co.Wolf 54Wagner 39
NEW YORK–Research Co.Cuomo 54Molinaro 37
NEW YORK–Siena CollegeCuomo 49Molinaro 36
MINNESOTA–Research Co.Walz 48Johnson 42
MICHIGAN–Research Co.Whitmer 47Schuette 43
CALIFORNIA–Research Co.Newsom 58Cox 38
CALIFORNIA–Probolsky ResearchNewsom 47Cox 37
ILLINOIS–Victory ResearchPritzker 49Rauner 33
NEW MEXICO–Research & Polling, Inc.Lujan Grisham 53Pearce 43


Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

0 comments on “The Polling Report for November 4, 2018

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: