The Polling Report for November 3, 2018

First Read: “For all of the attention on the fired-up base voters (Trump supporters vs. urban/suburban women), it’s also important to keep an eye on the middle of the electorate.”

“In our Arizona poll, Sinema was winning independents by 26 points (58 percent to 32 percent); just 33 percent of independents approved of Trump’s job performance; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent).”

“In our Indiana poll, Donnelly was winning independents by 23 points (54 percent to 31 percent); just 39 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and independents preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 9 points (47 percent to 38 percent).”

“And in our Tennessee poll, Dem Phil Bredesen was winning indies by 24 points (59 percent to 35 percent); just 42 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent).”

US SENATE
NEW MEXICO–Carroll Strategies—Heinrich 51—Rich 38
VERMONT–Gravis Marketing—Sanders 66—Zupan 30
CONNECTICUT–Gravis Marketing—Murphy 58—Corey 35
PENNSYLVANIA–Muhlenberg College—Casey 54—Barletta 40
MONTANA–Harris Interactive—Tester 49—Rosendale 42
MISSOURI–Remington Research Group—McCaskill 46—Hawley 44
MISSOURI–Harris Interactive—McCaskill 47—Hawley 47
NEVADA–Harris Interactive—Rosen 46—Heller 43
NEVADA–Gravis Marketing—Rosen 47—Heller 45
WISCONSIN–Emerson College—Baldwin 53—Vukmir 44
NEW JERSEY–Stockton University—Menendez 51—Hugin 39
OHIO–Gravis Marketing—Brown 46—Renacci 37
FLORIDA–Vox Populi Polling—Nelson 50—Scott 50
FLORIDA–Change Research—Nelson 50—Scott 48
ARIZONA–Vox Populi Polling—Sinema 52—McSally 48
TENNESSEE–Targoz Market Research—Bredesen 44—Blackburn 44
TENNESSEE–East Tennessee State University—Bredesen 49—Blackburn 49
CALIFORNIA–YouGov—Feinstein 36–de Leon 29
TEXAS–Change Research—O’Rourke 49-–Cruz 49

New York Times: “Populous states like Texas, which has a closely watched Senate race and a handful of competitive House races this year, are giving a big boost to overall advance voting turnout. But early turnout is high even in some states without competitive elections, like Maryland and Louisiana.

GOVERNOR
MAINE–Slingshot Strategies—Mills 55—Moody 38
VERMONT–Gravis Marketing—Scott 49—Hallquist 39
CONNECTICUT–Gravis Marketing—Lamont 46—Stefanowski 37
PENNSYLVANIA–Muhlenberg College—Wolf 58—Wagner 37
NEVADA–Harris Interactive—Sisolak 45—Laxalt 44
NEVADA–Gravis Marketing—Sisolak 46—Laxalt 44
FLORIDA–Harris Interactive—Gillum 47—DeSantis 45
FLORIDA–Vox Populi Polling—Gillum 53—DeSantis 47
FLORIDA–St. Pete Polls—Gillum 48—DeSantis 46
ARIZONA–Harris Interactive—Ducey 56—Garcia 35
ARIZONA–Vox Populi Polling—Ducey 54—Garcia 46
ARIZONA–OH Predictive Insights / MBQF—Ducey 57—Garcia 39
WISCONSIN–Emerson College—Evers 51—Walker 46
GEORGIA–Emerson College—Kemp 49—Abrams 47
GEORGIA–Atlanta Journal Constitution—Abrams 47—Kemp 47
OHIO–Gravis Marketing—Cordray 48—DeWine 43
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Change Research—Sununu 47—Kelly 46
TENNESSEE–East Tennessee State University—Lee 48—Dean 36
CALIFORNIA–YouGov—Newsom 53—Cox 34
IOWA–University of Iowa—Hubbell 44—Reynolds 40