The Polling Report for November 3, 2018

First Read: “For all of the attention on the fired-up base voters (Trump supporters vs. urban/suburban women), it’s also important to keep an eye on the middle of the electorate.”

“In our Arizona poll, Sinema was winning independents by 26 points (58 percent to 32 percent); just 33 percent of independents approved of Trump’s job performance; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent).”

“In our Indiana poll, Donnelly was winning independents by 23 points (54 percent to 31 percent); just 39 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and independents preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 9 points (47 percent to 38 percent).”

“And in our Tennessee poll, Dem Phil Bredesen was winning indies by 24 points (59 percent to 35 percent); just 42 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent).”

NEW MEXICO–Carroll StrategiesHeinrich 51Rich 38
VERMONT–Gravis MarketingSanders 66Zupan 30
CONNECTICUT–Gravis MarketingMurphy 58Corey 35
PENNSYLVANIA–Muhlenberg CollegeCasey 54Barletta 40
MONTANA–Harris InteractiveTester 49Rosendale 42
MISSOURI–Remington Research GroupMcCaskill 46Hawley 44
MISSOURI–Harris InteractiveMcCaskill 47Hawley 47
NEVADA–Harris InteractiveRosen 46Heller 43
NEVADA–Gravis MarketingRosen 47Heller 45
WISCONSIN–Emerson CollegeBaldwin 53Vukmir 44
NEW JERSEY–Stockton UniversityMenendez 51Hugin 39
OHIO–Gravis MarketingBrown 46Renacci 37
FLORIDA–Vox Populi PollingNelson 50Scott 50
FLORIDA–Change ResearchNelson 50Scott 48
ARIZONA–Vox Populi PollingSinema 52McSally 48
TENNESSEE–Targoz Market ResearchBredesen 44Blackburn 44
TENNESSEE–East Tennessee State UniversityBredesen 49Blackburn 49
CALIFORNIA–YouGovFeinstein 36–de Leon 29
TEXAS–Change ResearchO’Rourke 49-Cruz 49

New York Times: “Populous states like Texas, which has a closely watched Senate race and a handful of competitive House races this year, are giving a big boost to overall advance voting turnout. But early turnout is high even in some states without competitive elections, like Maryland and Louisiana.

MAINE–Slingshot StrategiesMills 55Moody 38
VERMONT–Gravis MarketingScott 49Hallquist 39
CONNECTICUT–Gravis MarketingLamont 46Stefanowski 37
PENNSYLVANIA–Muhlenberg CollegeWolf 58Wagner 37
NEVADA–Harris InteractiveSisolak 45Laxalt 44
NEVADA–Gravis MarketingSisolak 46Laxalt 44
FLORIDA–Harris InteractiveGillum 47DeSantis 45
FLORIDA–Vox Populi PollingGillum 53DeSantis 47
FLORIDA–St. Pete PollsGillum 48DeSantis 46
ARIZONA–Harris InteractiveDucey 56Garcia 35
ARIZONA–Vox Populi PollingDucey 54Garcia 46
ARIZONA–OH Predictive Insights / MBQFDucey 57Garcia 39
WISCONSIN–Emerson CollegeEvers 51Walker 46
GEORGIA–Emerson CollegeKemp 49Abrams 47
GEORGIA–Atlanta Journal ConstitutionAbrams 47Kemp 47
OHIO–Gravis MarketingCordray 48DeWine 43
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Change ResearchSununu 47Kelly 46
TENNESSEE–East Tennessee State UniversityLee 48Dean 36
CALIFORNIA–YouGovNewsom 53Cox 34
IOWA–University of IowaHubbell 44Reynolds 40

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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