The Polling Report for November 2, 2018

A new NPR/PBS News Hours/Marist Poll finds that Democrats lead Republicans by nine points on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 43% among likely voters nationwide.

“Americans have already voted in record numbers in many states in this year’s midterm elections, confirming the heightened interest in the fight for control of Congress and state houses playing out in dozens of bitterly contested races,” the Washington Post reports.

“With less than a week remaining until Election Day, voters in at least 17 states surpassed overall early and absentee voting numbers from 2014… In some cases, early and absentee vote totals are on track to double since four years ago.”

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters in battleground congressional districts finds Democrats maintain a strong position to retake the U.S. House, but the party’s base of less-frequent voters and concerns about illegal immigration stand out as wild cards in the final days before Tuesday’s midterm election.

Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50% of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46% support the Republican.

Amy Walter: “The most recent polling suggests that Republicans haven’t ‘solved’ their independent voter problem. The Marist/PBS poll showed Democrats leading among independents on the generic ballot by 10 points. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading the generic by 14 points. This is in line with the last three midterm wave elections (2006, 2010, and 2014), in which the winning party carried independents by 12 to 19 points.”

US SENATE
OHIO–Cygnal—Brown 52—Renacci 42
WEST VIRGINIA–Emerson College—Manchin 47—Morrisey 42
WEST VIRGINIA–Research America Inc.—Manchin 45—Morrisey 40
FLORIDA–St. Pete Polls—Nelson 49—Scott 47
FLORIDA–Trafalgar Group—Nelson 49—Scott 47
FLORIDA–CNN/SSRS—Nelson 49—Scott 47
TENNESSEE–Emerson College—Blackburn 52—Bredesen 44
TENNESSEE–CNN/SSRS—Blackburn 49—Bredesen 45
TEXAS–Emerson College—Cruz 50—O’Rourke 47
NEW MEXICO–Carroll Strategies—Heinrich 52—Rich 37
PENNSYLVANIA–Franklin & Marshall College—Casey 50—Barletta 35
MONTANA–Harris Interactive—Tester 48—Rosendale 41
MISSOURI–Harris Interactive—McCaskill 46—Hawley 44
INDIANA–Harris Interactive—Donnelly 42—Braun 42
NEVADA–Harris Interactive—Rosen 46—Heller 43

“A new Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted over the past fractious, violent week shows a majority of voters think that President Trump has done more to divide the country than unite it since he took office last year — but that the national news media are even worse.

“Just 3 in 10 voters, 30 percent, said Trump has done more to unite the country, compared with 56 percent who said he’s done more to divide it. Even more voters, 64 percent, said the media have done more to divide the country, while only 17 percent say they have done more to unite it.”

GOVERNOR
OHIO–Cygnal—Cordray 43—DeWine 43
SOUTH DAKOTA–Mason-Dixon—Noem 47—Sutton 44
FLORIDA–Trafalgar Group—Gillum 48—DeSantis 46
FLORIDA–CNN/SSRS—Gillum 49–DeSantis 48
FLORIDA–Harris Interactive—Gillum 48—DeSantis 44
TEXAS–Emerson College—Abbott 51—Valdez 43
GEORGIA–Cygnal—Kemp 49—Abrams 47
GEORGIA–Univ. of Georgia—Abrams 47—Kemp 47
COLORADO–Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs—Polis 50—Stapleton 42
COLORADO–Magellan Strategies—Polis 45—Stapleton 40
NEW MEXICO–Carroll Strategies—Lujan Grisham 51—Pearce 46
TENNESSEE–CNN/SSRS—Lee 52—Dean 42
TENNESSEE–Emerson College—Lee 54—Dean 41
MASSACHUSETTS–MassINC Polling Group—Baker 68—Gonzalez 25
PENNSYLVANIA–Franklin & Marshall College—Wolf 59—Wagner 33
MINNESOTA–SurveyUSA—Walz 49—Johnson 41
NEVADA–Harris Interactive—Sisolak 46—Laxalt 44
ARIZONA–Harris Interactive—Ducey 56—Garcia 36

US HOUSE
ALASKA AT LARGE–Ivan Moore Research—Galvin 49—Young 48
VIRGINIA 10TH–Washington Post/George Mason—Wexton 54—Comstock 43