The Polling Report for November 2, 2018

A new NPR/PBS News Hours/Marist Poll finds that Democrats lead Republicans by nine points on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 43% among likely voters nationwide.

“Americans have already voted in record numbers in many states in this year’s midterm elections, confirming the heightened interest in the fight for control of Congress and state houses playing out in dozens of bitterly contested races,” the Washington Post reports.

“With less than a week remaining until Election Day, voters in at least 17 states surpassed overall early and absentee voting numbers from 2014… In some cases, early and absentee vote totals are on track to double since four years ago.”

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters in battleground congressional districts finds Democrats maintain a strong position to retake the U.S. House, but the party’s base of less-frequent voters and concerns about illegal immigration stand out as wild cards in the final days before Tuesday’s midterm election.

Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50% of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46% support the Republican.

Amy Walter: “The most recent polling suggests that Republicans haven’t ‘solved’ their independent voter problem. The Marist/PBS poll showed Democrats leading among independents on the generic ballot by 10 points. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading the generic by 14 points. This is in line with the last three midterm wave elections (2006, 2010, and 2014), in which the winning party carried independents by 12 to 19 points.”

OHIO–CygnalBrown 52Renacci 42
WEST VIRGINIA–Emerson CollegeManchin 47Morrisey 42
WEST VIRGINIA–Research America Inc.Manchin 45Morrisey 40
FLORIDA–St. Pete PollsNelson 49Scott 47
FLORIDA–Trafalgar GroupNelson 49Scott 47
FLORIDA–CNN/SSRSNelson 49Scott 47
TENNESSEE–Emerson CollegeBlackburn 52Bredesen 44
TENNESSEE–CNN/SSRSBlackburn 49Bredesen 45
TEXAS–Emerson CollegeCruz 50O’Rourke 47
NEW MEXICO–Carroll StrategiesHeinrich 52Rich 37
PENNSYLVANIA–Franklin & Marshall CollegeCasey 50Barletta 35
MONTANA–Harris InteractiveTester 48Rosendale 41
MISSOURI–Harris InteractiveMcCaskill 46Hawley 44
INDIANA–Harris InteractiveDonnelly 42Braun 42
NEVADA–Harris InteractiveRosen 46Heller 43

“A new Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted over the past fractious, violent week shows a majority of voters think that President Trump has done more to divide the country than unite it since he took office last year — but that the national news media are even worse.

“Just 3 in 10 voters, 30 percent, said Trump has done more to unite the country, compared with 56 percent who said he’s done more to divide it. Even more voters, 64 percent, said the media have done more to divide the country, while only 17 percent say they have done more to unite it.”

OHIO–CygnalCordray 43DeWine 43
SOUTH DAKOTA–Mason-DixonNoem 47Sutton 44
FLORIDA–Trafalgar GroupGillum 48DeSantis 46
FLORIDA–CNN/SSRSGillum 49–DeSantis 48
FLORIDA–Harris InteractiveGillum 48DeSantis 44
TEXAS–Emerson CollegeAbbott 51Valdez 43
GEORGIA–CygnalKemp 49Abrams 47
GEORGIA–Univ. of GeorgiaAbrams 47Kemp 47
COLORADO–Keating Research/OnSight Public AffairsPolis 50Stapleton 42
COLORADO–Magellan StrategiesPolis 45Stapleton 40
NEW MEXICO–Carroll StrategiesLujan Grisham 51Pearce 46
TENNESSEE–Emerson CollegeLee 54Dean 41
MASSACHUSETTS–MassINC Polling GroupBaker 68Gonzalez 25
PENNSYLVANIA–Franklin & Marshall CollegeWolf 59Wagner 33
MINNESOTA–SurveyUSAWalz 49Johnson 41
NEVADA–Harris InteractiveSisolak 46Laxalt 44
ARIZONA–Harris InteractiveDucey 56Garcia 36

ALASKA AT LARGE–Ivan Moore ResearchGalvin 49Young 48
VIRGINIA 10TH–Washington Post/George MasonWexton 54Comstock 43

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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