Elections National

The Polling Report for October 31, 2018

“Republicans are scrambling to save suddenly vulnerable candidates in congressional districts that President Trump won in 2016, as Democrats have charged deeper into conservative strongholds in their bid to win the House,” the Washington Post reports.

”On Tuesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee plans to launch an ad campaign in a South Carolina district that Trump carried by 13 percentage points, while House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) intends to campaign for a Kentucky incumbent in a district that went to Trump by 15 points.”

“The last-minute moves follow decisions by Republican groups to toss political lifelines to House candidates in Georgia, Florida, Virginia and Washington state, all in districts where Trump was victorious.”

OHIO–Emerson CollegeBrown 49Renacci 43
OHIO–Baldwin Wallace UniversityBrown 51Renacci 32
CONNECTICUT–Quinnipiac UniversityMurphy 56Corey 41
ARIZONA–Marist CollegeSinema 50McSally 44
MONTANA–Gravis MarketingTester 48Rosendale 45
FLORIDA–University of North FloridaNelson 47Scott 46
TENNESSEE–NBC News/Marist pollBlackburn 51Bredesen 46
RHODE ISLAND–Fleming & AssociatesWhitehouse 55Flanders 36

“The Republican Party base has been electrified by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings and a campaign blitz from President Donald Trump. But the burst of enthusiasm has not reversed the trajectory of the midterms for the House GOP, which remains on the verge of losing its majority next week,” Politico reports.

“Some Republicans deep in Trump country have regained ground. But the handful of bright spots have been outweighed by a tidal wave of Democratic spending and voter support in the closing weeks of the midterm election, according to public and private polling, interviews with strategists from both parties and a Politico analysis of TV spending figures. In recent days, House Republicans have rushed to fortify a surprise collection of GOP-held districts in a half-dozen states that were never expected to be competitive.”

IOWA 4TH–Change ResearchKing 45Scholten 44
CALIFORNIA 45TH–Siena College/New York TimesPorter 50Walters 43
CALIFORNIA 50TH–SurveyUSAHunter 48Campa-Najjar 45
KANSAS 3RD–Emerson CollegeDavids 55Yoder 43
NEW YORK 19TH–Monmouth UniversityDelgado 51Faso 43
MONTANA AT LARGE–Gravis MarketingWilliams 48Gianforte 48
UTAH 4TH–KUTV pollMcAdams 49Love 43

Emily Sugerman reports on the trend in state legislative races.  “Riding the “blue wave,” Democrats are vying to take between four and 14 state houses this November. And while all eyes may be on the congressional elections, experts say these state races are where the “Year of the Woman” could truly resonate…  The surge in female candidates is almost entirely due to Democratic women: Of the nearly 3,400 women running for state legislatures this year, almost 2,400 of them are Democrats. And while Republicans currently control the vast majority of state legislatures, it’s Democrats who are expected to make the most gains this year.”

GEORGIA–FOX 5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy pollAbrams 48Kemp 47
KANSAS–Emerson CollegeKobach 44Kelly 43
OHIO–Emerson CollegeCordray 49DeWine 44
OREGON–Emerson CollegeBrown 47Buehler 42
CONNECTICUT–Quinnipiac UniversityLamont 47Stefanowski 43
ARIZONA–Marist CollegeDucey 54Garcia 40
CALIFORNIA–Gravis MarketingNewsom 55Cox 35
FLORIDA–University of North FloridaGillum 49DeSantis 43

A new Hart Research poll finds that suburban women prefer the Democratic Party to handle gun violence by 26 percentage points.

Axios: “Suburban women are a crucial voting bloc on virtually every issue in the 2018 midterm elections, and this poll suggests gun control is yet another topic that could sway voters in certain races around the country.” Key finding: 68% of all women surveyed prefer stricter gun laws, compared to 54% of men.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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