The Polling Report for October 13, 2018

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds that slightly more American voters say the debate over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court makes them more inclined to support Democrats for Congress than Republicans, 33% to 27% with another 39% say it makes no difference.

Women say the episode draws them toward Democrats over Republicans by a 16-point margin, 40% to 24%, while men are more evenly split, 25% to 30%.

First Read: “For all of the talk and evidence of how the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh has fired up voters in the reddest of red states, our three NBC/Marist polls this week of NevadaMinnesotaand Wisconsin show that he’s not popular with the middle of the country.”

“What’s more, independent voters in all three states break for the candidate opposing Kavanaugh — 36% to 32% in Nevada; 47% to 22% in Minnesota; and 41% to 28% in Wisconsin.”


GeorgiaAtlanta Journal Constitution poll — Brian Kemp 48Stacey Abrams 46.

The difference is well within the poll’s 2.8% margin of error, meaning the candidates are statistically tied.

WisconsinNBC News/Marist poll — Tony Evers 53Gov. Scott Walker 43.

Amy Walter: “In a nutshell, here’s what’s going on: Republican enthusiasm is about on par with where it was at the height of the anti-Obama fervor of 2010. But, Democratic enthusiasm is higher than it has ever been.”

“Here’s the other thing. Regardless of where turn-out ends up in November, the enthusiasm gap advantage that Democrats enjoyed throughout 2017-2018 has already taken its toll. It was that energy that prompted a record number of Democrats to run for Congress. And, it prompted Democratic donors to pump a record amount of money to these candidates. Without that enthusiasm boost in 2017 and early 2018, Democrats don’t expand the playing field and don’t have enough money to keep this many seats in play. The barn door may be closed now, but the horses have already escaped.”

“But, enthusiasm and turnout is only one part of the two-part challenge for Republicans in the House. Earlier this year, a GOP strategist told me: ‘If we tie with the Democrats on turnout, but lose with Independents on vote preference, we are still in deep doodoo.’”


Harry Enten: “My best estimate gives the Democrats a 23-seat majority in the House. That means they win 229 seats. However, the margin of error is wide enough that they could end up with 205 seats, short of a majority, or 262 seats, well more than needed for a majority.”

A new Politico/Harvard poll finds that more than half of Democrats likely to vote in House races rank health care as “extremely important” in determining their vote, the new survey found. That’s more than any other factor in an election cycle that Democratic candidates have cast as a referendum on Republican attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.

Yet the focus on health care appears confined to the Democratic side of the aisle. Republican respondents are primarily influenced by terrorism, jobs and gun policy — a sign of deepening partisan divisions in the Trump era.

“In a worrisome sign for two endangered Orange County lawmakers, a major Republican Party funding group has passed over the pair in its opening round of broadcast television advertising across Southern California,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“The omission of Reps. Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a political action committee closely aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), comes at a crucial inflection point in the midterm election when the two parties begin assessing their likely winners and losers.”


Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

1 comment on “The Polling Report for October 13, 2018

  1. If Dems take a majority in the house, the downside will be reading all the punditry about how Dems must not “overplay their hand”. The horrible part will be when Dem “leadership” agrees with the “analysis.”

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: