Politico: “Republicans are touting the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh as rocket fuel for the GOP grass roots in next month’s midterm elections, but it’s Democrats who appear more energized by the nomination fight, according to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll.”
“Kavanaugh’s confirmation is not popular: In the poll, which was conducted entirely after last week’s Senate vote, 46 percent of voters said the Senate ‘made the wrong decision’ in approving the controversial judge, while 40 percent said it was right to elevate him to the high court.”
“And following the GOP-led effort to push through his nomination, enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged. More than 3 in 4 Democrats (77 percent) say they are ‘very motivated’ to turn out and vote in the midterms — more than the 68 percent of Republicans who say they’re ‘very motivated.‘
If Beto O'Rourke beats Ted Cruz, it could be the tipping point for a blue Senate. It would also mean that the only Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee up for re-election lost.https://t.co/FjF8jtlXWk
— Washington Monthly (@washmonthly) October 9, 2018
Nevada. NBC News/Marist poll — Sen. Dean Heller 46—Rep. Jacky Rosen 44
Why is Nevada close? First Read: “Just 23.2% of adults over 25 in Nevada have a bachelor’s degree or higher… There are just five states with a lower share — and all of them are Trump-friendly states in the American South: Louisiana (23%), Kentucky (22.7%), Arkansas (21.5%), Mississippi (21%) and West Virginia (19.6%). And Nevada has the third-lowest share of women over 25 who have a bachelor’s degree or higher, also 23.2%. The others: Mississippi (22.6%), Arkansas (22.2%) and West Virginia (20.1%).”
“The recent Democrat success in Nevada — Obama in 2008 and 2012, Harry Reid in 2010 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 — has been due largely to the growing Latino vote in Nevada. But the college-educated white women that are fueling much of the Democratic resistance across the country? There aren’t as many of them in Nevada as there are in, say, the Midwest.”
Michigan. Mitchell Research poll — Sen. Debbie Stabenow 51 — John James 42
Texas. Quinnipiac poll — Sen. Ted Cruz 54 — Beto O’Rourke 45
Minnesota. NBC News/Marist poll — Sen. Tina Smith 54 — Karin Housley 38
Minnesota. NBC News/Marist poll — Sen. Amy Klobuchar 63 — Jim Newberger 33
Key finding: “The poll finds that 53 percent of likely voters prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats after the November midterm elections, while 41 percent prefer Republicans.”
Massachusetts. UMass Lowell/Boston Globe poll — Sen. Elizabeth Warren 56 — Geoff Diehl 31
Ohio. Cincinnati Enquirer/Suffolk poll — Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 54 — Jim Renacci 36.
A must read story on the state of play in Kansas: The gubernatorial bid of the Trump ally Kris Kobach has helped fracture the Kansas Republican Party—and could hand Democrats the governorship, @russellberman writes: https://t.co/WjhU1XRZB7
— Vernon Loeb (@LoebVernon) October 11, 2018
Maryland. Washington Post-University of Maryland poll —Gov. Larry Hogan 58—Ben Jealous 38
Connecticut. Quinnipiac poll —Ned Lamont 47 — Bob Stefanowski 39 — Oz Griebel 11
Georgia. SurveyUSA poll — Brian Kemp 47 — Stacey Abrams 45.
Key finding: “Abrams, who is African-American, leads 17:1 among black voters, who represent 30% of the likely electorate, according to SurveyUSA’s modeling. White voters, who make up 64% of SurveyUSA’s electorate, back Kemp nearly 3:1.”
Wisconsin. Marquette University Law School Poll — Gov. Scott Walker 47 — Tony Evers 46
Massachusetts. UMass Lowell/Boston Globe poll — Gov. Charlie Baker 66 — Jay Gonzalez 27
Ohio. Cincinnati Enquirer/Suffolk poll — Richard Cordray 46 — Mike DeWine 40.
Very interesting charts. They show how gerrymandering (and self-sorting) help Republicans keep seats in narrow races, and start backfiring with margins >8 percentage points. https://t.co/TrEJ0HwbHu pic.twitter.com/4TG4spbu3O
— David Bauer (@davidbauer) October 11, 2018
New Jersey 11th. Monmouth poll — Mikie Sherrill 48 — Jay Webber 44
“The race stands at 50% for Sherrill and 43% for Webber using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Sherrill with a 48% to 45% edge over Webber.”
Virginia 10th. Washington Post-Schar School Poll — Jennifer Wexton 55, Rep. Barbara Comstock 43
Key finding: “The survey finds voters say the president is the most important factor influencing likely voters’ choice for Congress, more so even than the strong economy which would boost the party in power in a typical election year.”
Pennsylvania 17th. Monmouth — Rep. Conor Lamb 54 — Rep. Keith Rothfus 42
“The race stands at 55% for Lamb and 41% for Rothfus using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Lamb with a 54% to 42% edge over Rothfus. These results are basically unchanged from Monmouth’s July poll.”
— The New Republic (@newrepublic) October 11, 2018
A new PRRI/The Atlantic survey finds just 35% of young Americans (ages 18-29), compared to 81% of seniors (ages 65 and older) and 55% of all Americans, say they are absolutely certain to vote in the November midterm elections.
Young Americans are also significantly less likely than seniors to say that all their friends are certain to vote (7% vs. 18%).
This week’s voter ID rulings could help decide control of the Senate https://t.co/6T6fglfLpb
— Vox (@voxdotcom) October 11, 2018
A new Morning Consult poll finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the most popular member of the U.S. Senate, while Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is the least popular.
A new Gallup poll finds that more Americans continue to disapprove than approve of last year’s sweeping tax overhaul bill signed into law by President Trump, 46% to 39%
If Democrats flip West Virginia 3rd, it’d be the biggest party flip in a midterm since 1998. https://t.co/X6dpJK1HmB
— Sarah E. Frostenson (@sfrostenson) October 11, 2018