The Polling Report for October 3, 2018

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) continues to have a decent lead in his reelection battle in spite of facing a big-spending opponent who’s hammered on Menendez’s ethical issues, according to a pair of new polls that counter a poll that found him only to have a two point lead earlier this week.

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) leading Bob Hugin (R) in the U.S. Senate race by 11 points, 53% to 42% among likely voters.   Only 5% of likely voters remain undecided, but 13% of voters who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.

And a new Fairleigh Dickinson poll finds Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) leads challenger Bob Hugin (R), 43% to 37% among likely voters.

Key finding: “Almost a third (29%) of registered voters say they are undecided in the contest between Menendez and Hugin. This is down from the 46% of registered voters who were undecided in a pre-primary, hypothetical match-up when the same question was asked in May. There remains a sizable number of Democrats who are undecided.”

A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 1st Congressional District finds Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) has inched ahead of challenger Scott Wallace (D), 50% to 46% among likely voters.

“The race narrows to a virtual tie of 49% for Fitzpatrick and 48% for Wallace using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Fitzpatrick with a larger 52% to 45% edge over Wallace.”

David Weigel: “NRCC chairman Steve Stivers has called Scott Wallace the worst Democratic nominee in the country, and he’s down by 4 points.”

A new Arizona Republic poll finds Kyrsten Sinema (D) leading Martha McSally (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 42% with 11% undecided and Green Party candidate Angela Green at 2%.

Key finding: “About 44 percent of voters viewed Sinema as favorable and about 36 percent saw her as unfavorable… More voters viewed McSally as unfavorable than favorable. About 43 percent saw her as unfavorable and about 41 percent viewed her as favorable.”

Kos’s Civiqs poll has Gillum up 4 up in Florida, the Florida Senate race tied at 46, and Beto up 1, 49-48, in Texas.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 34% of registered Republican voters and 32.5% of registered Democratic voters were unable to name their party’s congressional candidate less than five weeks before the midterm election.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 41% of Americans opposed to Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court, while 33% support him and 26% said they did not know.

“Opposition to Kavanaugh grew 4 percentage points after the Sept. 27 Judiciary Committee hearing… Opposition grew every day after the hearing in the poll, conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 1.”

“The increase in opposition to Kavanaugh, facing a confirmation vote in the Senate after being nominated by Trump for a lifetime position on the court, appears to be driven by those who previously did not have an opinion.”

Cook Political Report: “It’s becoming harder and harder to see Republicans’ path to holding the majority. In the past few days, multiple Democrats challengers have announced staggering fundraising totals of more than $3 million during the third quarter of the year, exceeding what many predecessors have raised for an entire cycle. One high-ranking Republican worries his party could be ‘buried under an avalanche’ of Democratic money that GOP outside groups can’t match.”

“After today’s ratings changes, there are 15 GOP-held seats in Lean or Likely Democratic (including seven incumbents) and Democrats would only need to win 11 of the 31 races in the Toss Up column to flip the majority. There’s still time for political conditions to change, but today the likeliest outcome appears to be a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats (they need 23 for House control).

A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment.

There’s been an uptick in GOP interest in all five states surveyed:

  • AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47%, Martha McSally (R) 45%
  • IN-Sen: Joe Donnelly (D) 43%, Mike Braun (R) 41%
  • MO-Sen: Claire McCaskill (D) 43%, Josh Hawley (R) 43%
  • ND-Sen: Kevin Cramer (R) 53%, Heidi Heitkamp (D) 41%
  • TN-Sen: Martha Blackburn (R) 48%, Phil Bresdesen (D) 43%




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