The Polling Report for September 27, 2018

A new Pew Research Center survey finds that 81% of voters who say they intend to support Democratic candidates, say Supreme Court appointments are very important to their vote in this year’s elections. That’s greater than the 72% of GOP-supporting voters who classify the court as very important to their vote.

“That represents a reversal from patterns in past elections and suggests the controversy surrounding Kavanaugh has upended what had been seen as a GOP asset. In 2016, of the voters who told exit pollsters that Supreme Court nominations were the most important factor in their vote, 56% voted for Trump, while 41% voted for Hillary Clinton.”

In the generic congressional ballot test, Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points, 52% to 42%.

A new Morning Consult survey finds that public support for Judge Brett Kavanaugh to fill the vacant Supreme Court seat “has dropped to its lowest point since President Trump nominated him in July, driven in large part by a sector of the president’s base: Republican women.”

“Kavanaugh’s net support among Republicans dropped 11 points, with 58% now in support of his confirmation and 14% opposed. The shift was driven by an 18-point fall in support among Republican women, with 49% now in favor and 15% in opposition.


A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Andrew Gillum (D) leading Ron DeSantis (R) in the race for governor by nine points, 54% to 45% among likely voters.   Earlier this month, Gillum lead by just three points.  Senator Bill Nelson leads in the same poll over Republican Governor Rick Scott by 53% to 46%.

A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll finds that if Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations of sexual assault against Brett Kavanaugh are true, 59% of Americans said they believe the Senate Judiciary Committee should not confirm his nomination to the Supreme Court.

The poll also revealed that 29% of those surveyed would support Kavanaugh’s nomination regardless of the legitimacy of Ford’s allegations, including 54% of Republicans.

A new USC Dornslife/Los Angeles Times poll found Democrats leading Republicans in a generic ballot test, 55% to 41%.  “If that advantage holds up until election day, just less than six weeks away, it would almost surely be large enough to sweep a Democratic majority into the House.”

Another key takeaway: “Likely voters disapprove of Trump’s overall performance in office by 57% to 39%, the poll found. Almost half of likely voters, 49%, said they ‘strongly’ disapprove, while just under one-quarter, 24%, strongly approve.”

A new Associated Press-NORC poll finds that more young people now say they are feeling anxious about the midterm elections, compared to July. Nearly half of young Americans ages 15 to 34 now say that they are anxious about the midterms, up from 36% in the earlier poll.

The increase is most pronounced among young Democrats: 61% expressed anxiety compared with 39% in July.

First Read: “Speaking of leading gubernatorial candidates pulling the rest of their ticket, don’t lose sight of how Democrats running ahead in the GOV contests in Illinois and Michigan are making House races in those states much more difficult for Republicans. In Illinois, think IL-6, IL-12, IL-13 and IL-14. And in Michigan, think MI-8, MI-11, M-6, MI-7. Just something to keep an eye on…”

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll in Indiana shows Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) leading challenger Mike Braun (R), 46% to 43%.

In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is ahead of Republican John James 55-35 percent.  Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer is ahead of Republican Bill Schuette 52-39 percent.  More than half (56 percent) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who opposes Trump compared with 41 percent who want a candidate who supports Trump.

Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is ahead of Republican Lou Barletta 53-37 percent.   Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is ahead of Republican Scott Wagner 55-38 percent.  More than half (55 percent) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who opposes Trump compared with 43 percent who want a candidate who supports Trump.

In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of Republican Jim Renacci 50-39 percent.  Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray is in a toss-up race against Republican Mike DeWine 44-45 percent.  About half (52 percent) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who opposes Trump compared with 46 percent who want a candidate who supports Trump.

In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is ahead of Republican Leah Vukmir 52-39 percent.  Democratic challenger Tony Evers is ahead of Republican Gov. Scott Walker 50-43 percent.  More than half (54 percent) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who opposes Trump compared with 42 percent who want a candidate who supports Trump.

A new NBC News/Marist poll in Ohio finds Richard Cordray (D) and Mike DeWine (R) deadlocked in the race for governor, 47% to 47%.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

0 comments on “The Polling Report for September 27, 2018

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: