The Polling Report for September 24, 2018

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Democrats hold a 12-point lead in congressional preference among registered voters, 52% to 40%, with nearly six-in-10 saying they’d like to see significant change in the direction President Trump has been leading the country.

Said GOP pollster Bill McInturff: “Americans are hitting the brake in a midterm, and trying to send the signal that they’re not satisfied.”

Key finding: And by a 42% to 31% margin, voters say their message in November will be for more Democrats to serve as a check and balance to Trump and the congressional Republicans, instead of Republicans who will help Trump and the GOP pass their agenda.”

A new Fox News poll shows Democrats leading 49% to 42%.

A new CBS Battleground Poll in the 61 most competitive House districts, most of which are currently held by Republicans, Democrats hold a four-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 41%


A new Fox News poll finds that just 40% of voters would confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, while 50% oppose him.

More voters believe Christine Blasey Ford’s claims of sexual assault than Kavanaugh’s denials by a 6-point margin, 36% vs. 30%. However, 34% are unsure who is telling the truth.

However, women are more likely to believe Ford by 10 points, and among suburban women that jumps to 17.  Men side with her by just 1 point.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota finds President Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 45% to 39%, while 56% disapprove of his handling of the job.

“In other results, Democrats are safely ahead of Republicans in nearly every major statewide race. Rep. Tim Walz (D) leads Jeff Johnson (R) by 9 points in the governor’s race, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is up big over Jim Newberger (R), and Sen. Tina Smith (D) leads state Sen. Karin Housley (R) by 7 points.”

“The only real bright spot for Republicans? Doug Wardlow (R) is within striking distance of Rep. Keith Ellison (D) in the attorney general contest, though still trailing by 5 percentage points, with 18 percent undecided. That’s after Ellison was accused by an ex-girlfriend of domestic abuse, which he denies.”

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Fred Hubbell (D) leading Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) in the race for Iowa governor, 43% to 41%, with Libertarian Jake Porter at 7% and another 9% undecided

NBC News: “Republican House primaries produced about 24% more votes than they did in 2014. But Democratic House primaries in 2018 produced 89% more votes than they did four years ago… That’s nearly a doubling in the number Democratic House votes this year and it’s enough to give Democrats a big lead over Republicans in votes this year. In total, 4.3 million more Democrats voted in House primaries this year than Republicans.”

“The edge was small in 1998, about 1.3 million more Democrats than Republicans voted, and in the general election, the Democrats gained five seats in the House. Democrats had a bigger 3-million vote edge in the primaries of 2006 and in the fall the party gained 30 seats in the House – plus six seats in the Senate – on their way to capturing both chambers of Congress.”

“Using the House primary vote as a metric reveals a similar correlation for Republicans. In 2010, when the Republicans rode a massive wave election to gain 63 seats in the House – as well as six Senate seats and numerous governorships – the party had an enormous 4.9-million vote edge in House primaries. And in 2014, the GOP had a smaller 2.2-million vote advantage in the House primary vote and gained 13 seats in the chamber.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

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