The Polling Report for September 22, 2018

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll in Pennsylvania finds Sen. Bob Casey (D) crushing challenger Lou Barletta (R), 53% to 35%.

In the governor’s race, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) leads challenger Scott Wagner (R) by a similar margin, 55% to 36%.

In the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans in the state by double digits, 50% to 39%.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s approval rate in the state is a dismal 39% to 55%.

Kavanaugh is getting more unpopular …probably. We need more data! https://t.co/LoWW6RlAYt

— Janie Velencia (@JanieVelencia) September 21, 2018

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 9% more Democrats say they will likely vote in this year’s midterm elections than did in the same poll in 2014, while 3% fewer Republicans said they would vote in 2018 than said so in 2014.

The Hill: “The greatest source of strength for Democrats in the poll came from left-leaning older women, nearly 20% of whom say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in the previous poll.”

A new USA Today/Ipsos poll taken following a sexual assault allegation issued against Brett Kavanaugh finds that 40% of Americans say he should be rejected by the Senate, while 31% say he should be confirmed to the Supreme Court

The Cook Political Report moves two U.S. Senate race rankings towards the Democrats:

• TX-Sen moves from Lean R to Toss Up
• WV-Sen moves from Toss Up to Lean D

A third race moves towards the Republicans:

• MT-Sen moves from Likely D to Lean D

Jennifer Duffy: “Generally, races in the Toss Up column don’t break down the middle; one party tends to win a majority of them. Over the past 10 cycles, no party has won less than 67 percent of all Toss Up races. In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party won 89 percent of the races in the Toss Up column. The working theory for this cycle has been that if Democrats end up winning a majority of the Toss Up races, then the political environment proved to be the factor driving the election.”

“President Trump likes to mock Nancy Pelosi, but a private survey conducted for the RNC finds that she’s actually more popular—and beats the president when the midterm election is framed as a contest between the two,” Bloomberg reports.

“The internal poll… asks registered voters who they support ‘when the November election is framed by Trump and Pelosi.’ Overall, respondents prefer Pelosi-aligned candidates over Trump-aligned candidates by 5 points, 50% to 45%. Among independents only, Pelosi still prevails by a 4-point margin.”