The Polling Report for September 20, 2018

Some new polls yesterday that contradict polling released two days ago.

Reuters/Ipsos surveyed four U.S. Senate battlegrounds and found very tight races:

  • AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema 47%, Martha McSally 44%
  • FL-Sen: Rick Scott 46%, Bill Nelson 45%
  • NV-Sen: Dean Heller 46%, Jacky Rosen 43%
  • TX-Sen: Beto O’Rourke 7%, Ted Cruz 45%

And the governor’s races in the same states:

  • AZ-Gov: Doug Ducey 51%, David Garcia 39%
  • FL-Gov: Andrew Gillum 50%, Ron DeSantis 44%
  • NV-Gov: Adam Laxalt 43%, Steve Sisolak 40%
  • TX-Gov: Greg Abbott 50%, Lupe Valdez 41%

In what political universe could Ted Cruz lose but Dean Heller win?  That doesn’t make sense.  And if Andrew Gillum is up by 6, then Bill Nelson will win his Senate race too.  I would like to meet the Gillum-Scott voter.

A new University of Mary Washington poll in Virginia shows Sen. Tim Kaine leading challenger Corey Stewart by a wide margin, 49% to 30%.

Key finding: “Although 73% of Republican respondents said they’d vote for Stewart, 15% of Republicans favored Kaine — a reflection of the deep divisions among Virginia Republicans over Stewart.”

A new Goucher Poll in Maryland finds that likely voters favor Gov. Larry Hogan over challenger Ben Jealous by a margin of 54% to 32%.

Key finding: “In addition to Hogan securing his Republican base by large margins, the poll found he had the support of 38 percent of Maryland Democrats, who outnumber GOP voters in the state by more than 2 to 1.

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Gov. Charlie Baker with a 27-point lead over challenger Jay Gonzalez, 55% to 28%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Elizabeth Warren holds an even larger gap over her challenger, Geoff Diehl, 54% to 24%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “What is fascinating about this poll is that Baker’s and Warren’s path to dominating their races are so different. Warren is using the traditional path of being popular within her party and getting just enough independents, whereas Baker has even numbers across every category, even the opposing party. One is a partisan, and one is a moderate, and they end up at the same spot.”

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 36% of adults surveyed did not want Judge Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, up 6 percentage points from a similar poll conducted a month earlier.  Just 31% of adults said they were in favor of Kavanaugh’s appointment.

“If support for his nomination remains this weak, Trump’s pick would rank among the lowest-supported Supreme Court nominees to later be confirmed, according to historical data from Gallup.”

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

3 comments on “The Polling Report for September 20, 2018

  1. Rueters/Ipsos is an online poll, might explain some of the differences. Not saying it is right or wrong but a different methodology than most of the traditional polling.

  2. Although 73% of Republican respondents said they’d vote for Stewart, 15% of Republicans favored Kaine […]

    73% of Virginia Republicans will vote for a self-proclaimed white nationalist for the US Senate.

    Any further protestations about ‘identity politics’ are utterly invalid.

    • something something Robert Byrd, something something her emails. (to beat the alphabet bros to it)

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