The Polling Report for September 16, 2018

U.S. SENATE
MONTANA—CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll—Sen. Jon Tester–47—Matt Rosendale–45
MISSOURI—CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll—Sen. Claire McCaskill–45—Josh Hawley–45
MICHIGAN—Glengariff Group/WDIV/Detroit News Poll—Sen. Debbie Stabenow–56—John James–33
NEVADA—Suffolk University Poll—Jacky Rosen–42—Sen. Dean Heller–41

GOVERNOR
IOWA—Emerson Polling—Fred Hubbell–36—Gov. Kim Reynolds–31
NEVADA—Suffolk University Poll—Steve Sisolak–37—Adam Laxalt–35
KANSAS—PPP Polls—Kris Kobach–39—Laura Kelley–38—Greg Orman–9—Rick Kloos–2—Jeff Caldwell–1
ILLINOIS—Research America/Illinois Broadcasters Association—JB Pritzker–44—Gov. Bruce Rauner–27
MINNESOTA—Mason Dixon Poll—Tim Walz–45—Jeff Johnson–36
OREGON—Hoffman Research Group—Gov. Kate Brown–49—Knute Buehler–39

Gallup: “A majority of Americans say President Trump’s ethical standards are lower than those of each of six U.S. presidents elected in the past 50 years. Less than half say Trump’s ethics are lower than Richard Nixon’s, but the 43% saying this still outweighs the 37% who say Trump’s ethics are higher than Nixon’s.”

"His poll numbers, although historically low, have remained relatively steady, giving rise to the idea that nothing can move opinions of Trump. That was never really true." https://t.co/RHmhknPxpG @JanieVelencia

— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) September 15, 2018

Harry Enten: “What’s important to keep in mind is that district polls at this point in the cycle can underestimate the party benefiting from a wave election.”

“I went back since the 2006 election and looked at how much the polls from roughly within a month of this point in the cycle performed. (That is, polls completed from about 52 to 82 days before the election.)”

“The immediate thing that jumps out is the side that has won the national House popular vote has always done better on Election Day than the polls indicate right now. The average overperformance was a little over 3 points.”

NBC News: “Start with the most basic measure, the number of House seats that are thought to be competitive. Back in May of 2017, when the Cook Political Report did its first ratings, it looked as if the Democrats and Republicans were starting on relatively even ground, but the numbers look very different today.”

“Back in May, there were 12 seats held by the Republicans that looked competitive and there were 11 held by Democrats — those were seats that were ranked as ‘lean’ toward their party or were considered even more in danger.”

“As of mid-September, there are 66 GOP-held seats that look competitive and only four Democratic seats in that category.”