A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Andrew Gillum (D) leads Ron DeSantis (R) in Florida’s race for governor by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%.
A new CBS Dallas-Forth Worth/Dixie Strategies poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) holds a slim lead over Beto O’Rourke (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 42%.
The differential of four points was within the margin of error of 4.3 points, meaning that the two candidates are statistically tied according to this poll.
The new FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 34% chance of taking control of the upper chamber in the November midterm elections.
A new NPR/Marist poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 12 percentage points, 50% to 38%.
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 14 percentage points, 52% to 38%. Independent voters back Democrats over Republicans 50% to 35%.
Asked pollster Tim Malloy: “Could the ‘blue wave’ become a tsunami?”
A new ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Martha McSally (R) leading Kyrsten Sinema (D) by three points in the race for U.S. Senate, 49% to 46%.
President Trump’s unpopularity “is unprecedented given the strength of the economy,” Bloomberg reports.
“That’s according to a Bloomberg analysis of polling data. It shows that Trump is the first U.S. leader dating back to at least Ronald Reagan whose approval rating is consistently low and lagging consumers’ favorable assessment of the economy. While consumer sentiment on the economy is currently higher than the average of any president since the poll started in the 1980’s, his approval rating… is the lowest of the lot.”
A new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds 61% of voters say the Trump administration is running chaotically, compared with 32% who say it is running well.
“Those are markedly worse numbers for the White House than in March, when 54% of respondents said the administration was running chaotically and 39% said it was running well.”
Stuart Rothenberg: “I have argued repeatedly that while the House is up for grabs — and indeed likely to flip to the Democrats in November — the Senate is not in play. I now believe that it is, so I must revise and extend my remarks.”
“Only about three weeks ago, I reiterated my view that Democrats didn’t have a path to a net gain of two Senate seats, which they need for a chamber majority. But a flurry of state and national polls conducted over the past few weeks suggest Democratic prospects have improved noticeably, giving the party a difficult but discernible route for control.”
National polling by CNN conducted at the end of hearings for Brett Kavanaugh show that he’s hardly more popular than the unindicted co-conspirator who nominated him. Just 38 percent of Americans say he should be confirmed, while 39 percent say he should not. For a bit of perspective, that makes him more unpopular than any nominee in the last three decades. Even Harriet Miers (who was also -1) reached approval levels in the 40s. Even Robert Bork was more popular, at a +3 approval.
No Democrat in a purple state need worry about voting against Kavanaugh, and new polling in red statessuggests that voting against him would actually help red state Democrats. A YouGov poll conducted in battleground states Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia before the hearings and just released show that the overwhelming majority of undecided voters didn’t really care about this vote. In Florida, 80 percent of undecided voters say it won’t make a difference; Missouri: 76 percent; Indiana: 68 percent; West Virginia: 80 percent; and North Dakota: 80 percent.
However, and this is a big however, in all of those states the Democratic base is tuned into the nomination and cares. Democrats are looking to their Democratic senators to oppose Kavanaugh:
Missouri: 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Claire McCaskill if she votes for Kavanaugh. Indiana: 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Joe Donnelly if he votes for Kavanaugh. Florida: 31% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Bill Nelson if he votes for Kavanaugh. West Virginia: 30% said they would be likely less to vote for Sen. Joe Manchin if he votes for Kavanaugh. North Dakota: 26% said they would be likely less to vote for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp if she votes for Kavanaugh.
Gallup: “The president’s party almost always suffers a net loss of U.S. House seats in midterm elections. However, losses tend to be much steeper when the president is unpopular. In Gallup’s polling history, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats, on average, in midterm elections. That compares with an average loss of 14 seats when presidents had approval ratings above 50%.”
“History, then, is not on the Republicans’ side this fall, as President Donald Trump has a 40% job approvalrating two months before the 2018 midterm elections.”
“Special counsel Robert Mueller’s approval rating for handling the Russia investigation stands at 50% in a new CNN Poll… That outpaces President Trump’s approval rating on the matter by 20 points.”
“Mueller’s approval rating stands at its highest level in CNN polling, rising 3 points since August, a shift within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Trump’s rating, meanwhile, dipped 4 points, narrowly larger than the error margin.”