Open Thread

The Open Thread for July 25, 2018

A new Quinnipiac poll is devastating for Trump and his lackey Republicans.  Notably, it finds that American voters believe 51% to 35% “that the Russian government has compromising information about President Trump.”

Trump approval is 38% and his disapproval is 58%.  That is a net -20 negative differential.  In early July, that differential was -15, and in Mid June it was -9.  So that is a 11 point negative shift for Trump.

69% of Americans believe they have a right to know what went on in the room with Putin. Huge margins among independents (73%) and Democrats (92%). But Republicans don’t (38%).

52% of Americans view the Helsinki meeting with Putin as a failure for Trump.  27% say success.

63% are concerned about Russian interference in 2018 elections: 36% are not.  You guessed it: Democrats and Independents are heavily concerned, Republicans are heavily not concerned.

Majority believes Trump campaign colluded (46% to 44%), but not Trump personally (39%-48%).

Is Russian election interference an attack on the United States? An attack: 67% Not an attack: 24% HOWEVER! Among republicans: An attack: 41% Not an attack: 46%.

Good numbers for the Mueller investigation. The numbers of those thinking the Mueller investigation is fair are surging. Is Mueller conducting a fair investigation? Fair: 55% Unfair: 31%  That is a 9 point difference from the last poll.

Do you approve of how Trump is handling Russia? Approve: 34% Disapprove: 55%

Some evidence that attacks on the FBI are actually failing. Do you think the FBI is biased against Trump? Biased: 34% Not Biased: 53%.  Is your view of the FBI favorable? Favorable: 49% Unfavorable: 25%.

Who do you trust to tell you the truth, Trump or US Intel Agencies? Trump: 25% Intel agencies: 63%

51% say Trump has weakened US as leader of free world.  53% say he wants what’s best for himself, not the US.  One of biggest takeaways from Q poll: Trump slipping badly with his blue-collar white base. Was at 57/36 (+21) approval last month; down to 49-47 (+2) this month.

Matt is not being sarcastic.  ICE is now the most despised government agency in existence, as well it should be.   So much for the caution screams from the punditry and moderate Democrats.

A new Monmouth Poll in Pennsylvania’s newly-redrawn 17th congressional district finds that Conor Lamb (D), who has served in Congress for just three months after winning a special election earlier this year, holds a double digit lead over three-term Keith Rothfus(R), 51% to 39%.

”The Democratic lean of the new district gives Lamb a decided advantage, with many voters expressing doubts about economic policies put forth by both the White House and the GOP-controlled Congress.”

As a result, the Cook Political Report has moved the district from Toss Up to Leans Democrat.  “The combination of dramatically better district lines for Democrats, the candidate resume contrast and an anti-Trump national mood give Lamb the clear advantage. Rothfus becomes only the second GOP incumbent to join the Lean Democratic column.”

Stu Rothenberg: “No, Donald Trump’s voters are not fleeing him, and his personal poll numbers have not cratered even after his behavior at the NATO meeting in Belgium and his Helsinki meeting with Vladimir Putin. So, maybe he really could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters. But that says something about Trump’s supporters, not the overall electorate.”

“Unfortunately for Republicans, the combination of national and state polling continues to show the party’s vulnerability as November approaches.”

The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump’s approval rate dipping down to 41%.

That sound you hear is all humans on Earth laughing at the same time.   Well, Mr. Trump, if you are so concerned, there is a myriad things you can do as a President with majorities of both houses of Congress.   You could enforce the sanctions you are illegally not enforcing.  You could pass new sanctions.  You could launch a retaliatory cyber attack and cripple Russia’s electrical and communications infrastructure.   You could expel all Russian nationals from the United States.   You could fully fund election protection programs that you stripped funding of last month.

“The Kremlin was reticent on Tuesday about whether it would accept an invitation from President Trump to hold a summit with Vladimir Putin in Washington later this year, saying only that the two men had other chances to meet as well,” Reuters reports.

“The Kremlin’s failure to swiftly accept Trump’s invitation for a Washington summit has been noticeable. Though Moscow saw the Helsinki summit n the two leaders held last week as a success, the fiercely negative reaction by some U.S. politicians to Trump’s performance has taken some in Russia aback.”

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) told CNN “he believed there were ‘sound reasons’ for judges to approve the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant on former Trump campaign foreign policy adviser Carter Page, in yet another break between the Republican leaders of the House and Senate intelligence committees.”

“Burr’s comments once again put him at odds with House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes, who spearheaded the memo on FISA abuses.”

“The White House plans to announce on Tuesday a plan to extend $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers caught in the midst of President Trump’s escalating trade war, two people briefed on the plan said, the latest sign that growing tensions between the United States and other countries will not end soon,” the Washington Post reports.

”The funds will come through direct assistance, a food purchase and distribution program, and a trade promotion program.”  President Trump’s “bailout for the ag industry is driving his many Republican trade critics to exasperation,” Politico reports.

”Pro-free trade Republicans were already furious with Trump’s escalation of tariffs against U.S. allies and China — a multi-front trade war they say is hurting U.S. farmers and manufacturers. But the administration’s response Tuesday — sending $12 billion to farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs to ease the pain — is the precise anathema of conservative, free-trade orthodoxy.”

Said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI): “This is becoming more and more like a Soviet-type of economy here: Commissars deciding who’s going to be granted waivers, commissars in the administration figuring out how they’re going to sprinkle around benefits. I’m very exasperated. This is serious.”

The Constitution gives the tariff power to Congress, and that any powers the president enjoys in that area are the result of statutory delegations that can be reversed today—over a veto if necessary.  So all this moaning and whining by the GOP in Congress reveals how weak and pathetic they are.  They could reverse Trump’s tariffs today.  They don’t. Because they are cowards.

Read the article, as I think the headline here is at odds with what Martin is arguing in the piece.  It won’t be a boon to Trump.

Stan Collender: “The deadline for Congress and President Donald Trump to come to an agreement that will avoid a government shutdown this fall — which may be a much more frequent threat and occurrence these days than it used to be but would still be anything but routine – is approaching quickly and neither the White House, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) or Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have done anything to make it less likely.”

”Because of that, because the time left to prevent it from happening is steadily dwindling and because the other must-do tasks Congress has left are still multiplying, the chances of a shutdown happening this year are greater now than they were even a few week ago.”

“Ivanka Trump, President Trump’s eldest daughter and a top White House adviser, is shutting down her namesake fashion brand more than a year after stepping away from the company,” the New York Timesreports.

Said Ms. Trump: “After 17 months in Washington, I do not know when or if I will ever return to the business, but I do know that my focus for the foreseeable future will be the work I am doing here in Washington, so making this decision now is the only fair outcome for my team and partners.”

Washington Post: “The closure comes as a surprise even within the company, which has 18 employees. As recently as last week, officials had been discussing the implementation of long-delayed oversight of its foreign factory partners.”

When Attorney General Jeff Sessions criticized “snowflakes,” a crowd of listening high school students chanted, “Lock her up!,” the Washington Post reports.  Sessions laughed and repeated their call.

Perry Bacon: “Sen. Kamala Harris has not officially said she is running in 2020, but she hasn’t denied it, either, and she’s showing many of the signs of someone who is preparing for a run, including campaigning for her Democratic colleagues in key races and signing a deal to write a book. The Californian ranks low in polls of the potential Democratic 2020 field, and she doesn’t have the name recognition of other contenders… But betting markets have her near the top, reflecting the view among political insiders that Harris could win the Democratic nomination with a coalition of well-educated whites and blacks, the way Obama did in 2008.”

“Whatever happens later, the rise of Harris and her viability for 2020 tell us something about American politics right now: We are in the midst of an intense partisan and ideological battle over culture and identity; the Democrats aren’t backing down or moving to the center on these issues; and politicians who want to lead in either party will probably have to take strong, clear stances on matters of gender and race.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.”  “We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats.” “One of those comes in OH-12, where the last nationally-watched special House election is taking place in a couple of weeks.”

First Read: “One of the clues we missed about Trump in 2016 was his overperformance among voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton. These voters made up 18% of voters in our merged NBC/WSJ polls of 2016, and they disproportionately broke for Trump and the GOP on the generic ballot.”

”So how are these kinds of voters breaking now? Well, our latest NBC/WSJ poll finds that Democrats are overperforming among voters who hold negative views of both parties, 55% to 25% (representing 13 percent of the sample).”

”What’s more in our current poll, these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68% disapprove of his job, versus 52% of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63% of them have high interest, versus 55% of all voters who say this).”

Vanity Fair: “Despite the tape’s release, however, people familiar with Cohen’s thinking are confident that his value as a potential cooperating witness is undiminished. ‘It’s not the recording that is valuable,’ one person said. ‘It’s the backstory.’ Another person close to Cohen said that he was privy to information that could be valuable to special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s attempt to interfere in the 2016 election.”

Said the person: “When Michael says that he wants the truth out there, and that the truth is not the president’s friend, he is not talking about marginal issues. He’s talking about core issues at the heart of the Mueller probe.

“Three people familiar with the situation believe that Cohen has discussed information about the June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower, during which Don Jr., Kushner, and Paul Manafort met with a Russian lawyerwith ties to the Kremlin who promised to provide them with ‘dirt’ on Hillary Clinton.”

“Twelve audiotapes seized when federal agents raided the home and office of former Trump private attorney Michael Cohen have now been released to federal investigators,” NBC News reports.

Delaware politics from a liberal, progressive and Democratic perspective. Keep Delaware Blue.

23 comments on “The Open Thread for July 25, 2018

  1. delacrat

    “A new Quinnipiac poll ……

    Yaawwn

    • Prop Joe

      I think we all have the same reaction when you come here and comment

    • cassandram

      And look at you, still not talking about the problems that most Americans want addressed. Go figure. Yaawwn.

      • Seriously. He still hasn’t cleared up his anti-immigrant statements from last week. Anti-immigrant “democrats” should explain themselves. Or stand revealed, their choice.

        • delacrat

          alby still hasn’t cleared up why he had delacrat banned from delawareliberal.net

          As career member of the Free Press, alby’s not so big on the First Amendment.

          • cassandram

            It is pretty rich that you would critique Alby’s 1st Amendment position when your entire “contribution” here is to try to control the conversation. You have no right to be in private places, which is what a blog is, especially when you can’t quite figure out how to participate in a productive manner.

            • delacrat

              How does disagreeing with the prevailing opinion “control the conversation” ?

              • cassandram

                You don’t disagree about prevailing opinion. You *do* critique what we write about.

                Which is pretty stupid since part of the reason for blog space is to talk about what you want. Let people discuss your opinion or thoughts if you have the cojones for it. You don’t do that. You just try to dis the people who are trying to discuss topics.

          • That’s easy. Because you’re a disruptive dick. I think everybody but you realizes that.

            Contribute to an actual conversation for once. You never have. You only criticize what other people have to say without revealing your own beliefs, which is the epitome of trolling. A bot would be no different, so out you went.

            I never worked for the Free Press. They charged people and paid me. Nothing free about it.

            So cough it up or remain something I scrape off my shoe when I step in it. C’mon, tell us about immigrants, big man.

  2. cassandram

    Trump fears Biden 2020, losing Pennsylvania

    This is basically the only reason to want Biden as a candidate. I can see him cutting the GRIFTUS down to size pretty easily.

    • delacrat

      ….[T]he only reason to want Biden as a candidate.” – cassandram

      With such faint praise, Trump has little to fear from Biden.

      • cassandram

        So this is exactly what I am talking about. This snide bit of business fails to even try to engage with what i am saying. I’d tell you that you were a misogynist, but you treat all of us with the same disrespect that tries to ding people for just not having an opinion you approve of. So since you aren’t going to get a clue, you are officially on notice.

      • It doesn’t even make any sense. There is no connection between the two halves of the sentence.

        Maybe s/he thinks s/he’s displaying a cutting wit or something. I’ll be damned if I can figure out what s/he gets out of this — and it’s been going on for 10 freaking years.

    • There’s no reason Biden can’t hold rallies where he castigates Trump in the red meat manner. Money donated to the cause of labor, it’s a win-win.

  3. I only trust our intelligence community slightly more than Trump. I think this idea that we have to completely believe all of their bullcrap is bullcrap.

    • cassandram

      We’ll remember that when you come back here to cheerlead for war with Iran.

    • I was reminded of that when Comey gave his “advice to democrats”. They are still the State, they are still mostly Republicans.
      The enemy of my enemy is not my friend. When trmp is rotting in a pit, the FBI will still be based on racist corruption and state power.

      • The enemy of my enemy is my ally, not my friend. See U.S. and USSR, 1941-45.

        • disagree. unless you mean temporarily. The FBI is a useful tool until trmp and company are in shackles. After that, we’ll see. Law enforcement is not inherently good or bad. It all depends on the laws and those enforcing them.

          • Well of course I meant temporarily. That’s why I said 1941-45. I hope you haven’t resorted to day drinking to deal with the Trump Interregnum.

  4. cassandram

    John Atkins charged again after contacting victim he strangled: Police

    Police found that Atkins was texting, calling and emailing the woman at her place of employment. Those actions violated his conditions of release from the Sussex County Court of Common Pleas, stemming from charges made by Delaware State Police on July 12, Lewes police said.

  5. “The base of the Democratic Party is much further to the left than moderates recognize. (link: http://bit.ly/2JS4UKp) bit.ly/2JS4UKp” I keep saying that. And they are a political majority.

  6. nathan arizona

    Go Deep State! (And Michael Cohen, too.) The Deep State does what it always does. Sometimes that’s good for us, sometimes for the other side. This time for us.

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