President Trump shut down the government last night by rejecting a pretty amazing deal offered to him by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. Schumer offered Trump nearly full funding for Trump’s idiot wall, in exchange for passage of the DREAM act and continued protections for DACA recipients, according to CNN. Seems completely fair, and it will appear that way to the American people. Schumer left thinking he had a deal. Racist General John Kelly called him and said the deal was too liberal. And so the Government shuts down and will remain closed until such time as the deal is accepted.
If Dems stare down Trump in Dreamer shutdown showdown, they will win https://t.co/upWWV3xrDt No doubt in my mind
— Jennifer Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) January 19, 2018
Josh Marshall: “This is so basic and runs so deep that people ignore it. But it’s worth repeating: shutdowns are part of the Republican brand. The facts, in this case, show the GOP is at fault. But even if they didn’t, even if the facts showed the opposite, the GOP would still have a hard time because again: shutdowns are part of the Republican brand. They invented them as a policy and legislative cudgel. They’ve used them consistently under Democratic presidents. And because Republicans are generally inimical to the idea that government is a positive force in people’s lives and valorize dramatic and high stakes political gambits they have consistently embraced the concept and strategy of government shutdowns.”
— Pod Save America (@PodSaveAmerica) January 19, 2018
AMERICANS WILL BLAME THE SHITHOLE SHUTDOWN ON TRUMP/REPUBLICANS. A new CNN poll finds that “about half of Americans say they would blame either Trump (21%) or his Republican counterparts in Congress (26%) should Congress fail to fund the government by the midnight Friday deadline. About a third, 31%, say they would hold the Democrats in Congress responsible, and another 10% say they’d blame all three groups.”
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds substantially greater Republican risk in a government shutdown, with Americans by a 20-point margin saying they’re more likely to blame Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress (48%) than the congressional Democrats (28%)if one occurs.
— Joy Reid (@JoyAnnReid) January 20, 2018
SHUTDOWN MAY BE QUICKLY FORGOTTEN. New York Times: “Yet as the hours ticked down Friday toward what would be the first shuttering of the government since that 2013 showdown, Democrats betrayed little nervousness about pushing a shutdown, because they believe any immediate backlash will be long forgotten in a midterm election destined to revolve around another, even more polarizing president. If voters had forgotten the shutdown months later in 2013, they may forget it even more quickly in 2018. In the dizzying news cycle of the Trump era, voters can hardly remember what happened a few days ago.”
I would add that a cave by Democrats would not be.
THANKS TO WOMEN. William A. Galston argues at Brookings that “Data point to a new wave of female political activism that could shift the course of US politics.” Noting a new Gallup report “documenting a substantial rise in Americans’ discontent with the position of women in U.S. society. 37 percent espoused this sentiment in 2018, compared to 26 percent in 2008…All of the change occurred among Democrats. 43 percent of Democratic men were unhappy about the status of women, compared to 29 percent a decade earlier. Discontent among Democratic women moved even more, soaring from 38 percent to 62 percent. Meanwhile, sentiment among Republicans did not budge: 15 percent of men and 18 percent of women expressed discontent in both 2008 and 2018…Taken together with the MTV/PRRI survey, these findings suggest that Democratic women are poised to become the leading edge of calls for fundamental change in the treatment of women in U.S. society. The political effects of their mobilization in the 2018 midterms and beyond will be one of the major story-lines for analysts during the next few years.”
Thomas B. Edsall’s New York Times op-ed, “Will Women Lead the Democrats to Victory?” reviews additional data and adds more evidence to the argument, including this observation by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake: “In an email, Lake argued that the issue of sexual harassment will motivate young and unmarried women to vote, that it has already helped restore Democratic loyalty among college-educated women and that it will improve prospects for women running for office….For many women, according to Lake, “there is a continuum from sexual assault to sexual harassment to bad social and dating behavior,” all of which can help motivate female voters.”
Time: “At least 79 women are exploring runs for governor in 2018, potentially doubling a record for female candidates set in 1994…. The number of Democratic women likely challenging incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives is up nearly 350% from 41 women in 2016. Roughly 900 women contacted Emily’s List, which recruits and trains pro-choice Democratic women, about running for office from 2015 to 2016; since President Trump’s election, more than 26,000 women have reached out about launching a campaign.”
“It’s not just candidates. Experienced female political operatives are striking out on their own, creating new organizations independent from the party apparatus to raise money, marshal volunteers and assist candidates with everything from fundraising to figuring out how to balance child care with campaigns.”
Two sources close to Trump told The Daily Beast how excited he was for his inauguration anniversary bash at Mar-a-Lago and privately vented frustrations that the potential failure to strike a deal could keep him from “my party,” as the president has said. https://t.co/EYmFvPaPpq
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 20, 2018
THANKS TO CALIFORNIA. Ed Kilgore on the political reverberation’s of Trump’s environmental policies in California: “Aside from the tax bill’s unique unpopularity in California, Trump has definitely damaged his and his party’s brand in the state with the Interior Department’s recent announcement that the state’s coasts will probably be reopened to offshore drilling in federally controlled waters. There haven’t been any new federal leases for offshore drilling in California since 1984, and the very idea tends to produce strong bipartisan opposition. Inadequate or tardy federal response to California’s horrific wildfires by the Trump administration or the Republican Congress is another big potential problem for the GOP.”
Experts in lab coats pathologizing Trump are unlikely to convince Republican leaders that he is unfit. https://t.co/ezNFHJ7lLa
— Vox (@voxdotcom) January 20, 2018
NET NEUTRALITY. Philip Bump of Post Politics brings the bad news about net neutrality — that “the effort by Senate Democrats to push back on the FCC’s move is, barring a political miracle, a nonstarter.” However, notes Bump, “Democrats see that this is an issue that energizes their base, so they do everything they can to change the FCC decision. This isn’t much, mind you, but it’s all they’ve got. And by checking this box, they can argue on the campaign trail that they need more Democrats in the House and Senate — though, by the time November rolls around, it will be too late to use the CRA, and even if they could, there’s still the issue of Trump. In 2020, it can be used as a rationale for the election of a Democrat as president…What’s more, it can be framed as threatening freedom of speech on the Internet, which, in the Trump era, has been a closely-watched concern.”
The Trump administration is a counterintelligence disaster for America “Jared Kushner Is China’s Trump Card” https://t.co/V8kAcCXO2Y
— Clint Watts (@selectedwisdom) January 20, 2018
TRUMP IS STARVING THE CONSUMER PROTECTION BUREAU. Politico: “Every quarter, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau formally requests its operating funds from the Federal Reserve. Last quarter, former director Richard Cordray asked for $217.1 million. Cordray, an appointee of President Barack Obama, needed just $86.6 million the quarter before that. And yesterday, President Donald Trump’s acting CFPB director, Mick Mulvaney, sent his first request to the Fed.”
“He requested zero.”
BUT if Democrats win and get a deal that protects Dreamers in exchange for border security money, then Trump will have obtained his original objective!
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) January 20, 2018
#RELEASETHETALKINGPOINTS. “House Republicans spent the end of the workweek telling everyone who would listen that the American people must be allowed to see a top-secret four-page document that could bring an end to special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference with the 2016 elections,” the HuffPost reports.
“One thing about that document: Republican staffers wrote it.”
“The document, which alleges abuses of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act during the FBI’s quiet counterintelligence investigation into the Trump campaign in the final months of the 2016 election, was actually compiled by Republican staffers on the House Intelligence Committee. That committee voted along partisan lines this week to allow any member of Congress to take a peek at the document themselves. Republican members soon flocked to a secure room to read the memo written by their allies — and then ran to tell the press about it.”
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) January 20, 2018
TRUMP IS IN A STORMY MOOD. “A tabloid magazine held back from publishing an adult film star’s 2011 account of an alleged affair with Donald Trump after the future president’s personal lawyer threatened to sue, the Associated Press reports.
“In Touch magazine published its 5,000-word interview with the pornographic actor Stormy Daniels on Friday — more than six years after Trump’s long-time attorney, Michael Cohen, sent an email to In Touch’s general counsel saying Trump would aggressively pursue legal action if the story was printed.”
One year ago, the balmy narrative was that Donald Trump would grow into the position of President. The optimists have, for the most part, been proven wrong: https://t.co/96OtvPnjnE pic.twitter.com/5CFl1UIFUA
— The New Yorker (@NewYorker) January 20, 2018
SUPREME COURT WILL HEAR CHALLENGE TO TRAVEL BAN. “The Supreme Court announced on Friday that it would consider a challenge to President Trump’s latest effort to limit travel from countries said to pose a threat to the nation’s security, adding a major test of presidential power to a docket already crowded with blockbusters,” the New York Times reports.
“The justices are likely to hear arguments in the latest case in the spring and to issue a decision in late June.”
The alleged Trump Organization money laundering with Russian counterparts is not just significant for its potential criminal component, but also because such transactions are used by Russian intelligence officers to compromise and control their targets. https://t.co/2aFg9I0aPm
— Evan McMullin (@Evan_McMullin) January 19, 2018
TIME FOR MENENDEZ TO GO. “Two months after a jury failed to come to a verdict in the corruption case against Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and co-defendant Salomon Melgen, the Justice Department on Friday said they want to retry him,” Politico reports.
— Rebecca Bainer (@rebbainer) January 19, 2018