The Republicans always lie about their tax plans. But this time it’s not working.

In selling their tax plan to lawmakers and the American people, President Trump and Republicans leaders have said 1) that the plan would lead to a huge increase in GDP and economic growth, which 2) would lead to higher tax revenues to offset the budget deficit the plan creates, and 3) all Americans will benefit in seeing their taxes go down.  Trump himself has gone a little further, by lying that he and the wealthy would pay more under his plan.

But the lies are not working this time.   The plan already garners 52% disapproval among Americans according to recent polling.  New Hart Research polling finds the Republican tax bill is very unpopular in some very specific and inconvenient places: Sen. Bob Corker’s home state of Tennessee (30% approve), Sen. John McCain’s and Sen. Jeff Flake’s home state of Arizona (26% approve) and Sen. Susan Collins’ home state of Maine (22% approve).   Further, small businesses are opposed to the plan by 51%, according to a new Public Policy Polling poll.  34% of small businesses support the GOP tax plan, while 52% agreed with the statement that current proposals favor large corporations over small businesses.  58% said it felt wealthy corporations would benefit the most.

Why are the lies not working.  Have all small businesses become Democrats?   Have Tennesseans, Mainers and Arizonans all become liberal?

I humbly submit, that in our current alternative-fact-non-truth world where nothing matters anymore, that facts and evidence actually do matter.   Perhaps its because the public can remember back to the halcyon days of the early 2000’s when they were sold the very same Trickle Down Laffer Curve bullshit as they are being sold today.  They remember what happened in the 2000’s, after the Bush tax cuts passed.  It did not lead to increased economic growth.  It did not pay for itself, instead leading to huge deficits and debt.  And every American surely did not benefit.  The wealthy benefited tremendously, but the average Americans remembers that they got a $300 rebate and then the Financial Crash of 2008 happened, which wiped out their savings, cost them their job and home, and left everyone but the top 1% horribly worse off.    So replaying the Tax Cuts Cures All playbook again so exactly was the wrong choice, but then again, it is all the GOP has.

Further, the facts actually do matter theory is bolstered by the fact that several recent studies and analyses from both sides of the aisle destroy the Trumpian Republican talking point.  The Tax Foundation, which uses an aggressive “dynamic scoring” to measure the effect of tax changes on the economy much to the delight of Republicans, found that the economy won’t reach 3 percent growth in a single year until 2027 under the House bill — far less than the claims of President Trump and GOP leaders.

Penn-Wharton study, which was led by a former Bush administration economist, finds economic growth would actually be less than 1 percentage point larger by 2027.   A Tax Policy Center study, which was led by former Democratic budget officials, finds the House bill would boost the economy by just one-third of a percentage point.  Meanwhile, a University of Chicago Booth School of Business survey found that just 2 percent of economists agreed that the GOP tax cuts would substantially boost the economy by 2027, while a majority — 51% — disagreed.

Every one single of these aforementioned studies finds the Republican tax plan would substantially increase the deficit in the range of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion over 10 years.  And as I mentioned in the Open Thread today, a new CBO report out this week shows that the Senate GOP tax plan would hurt most lower income people over the next decade.

The Washington Post reports that by 2019, “Americans earning less than $30,000 a year would be worse off under the Senate bill, [….] [b]y 2021, Americans earning $40,000 or less would be net losers, and by 2027, most people earning less than $75,000 a year would be worse off.” On the flip side, millionaires and those earning $100,000 to $500,000 would be big beneficiaries, according to the CBO’s calculations.

But the GOP will likely pass this bill anyway, because, in the end, if you can’t vote for tax cuts for the wealthy there is no reason to be a Republican.  But these Congressional Republicans go into this vote knowing that their lies have failed this time, and that everyone knows the game they are playing, and that there will be consequences in the next election.  Before, the GOP could convince themselves that their lies worked.  Not this time.


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19 comments on “The Republicans always lie about their tax plans. But this time it’s not working.

  1. Yeah. Consequences like a second Trump term when the average GDP growth for his four years will be better than the best quarterly number of the Obama presidency. Consequences like a market that is setting records every day and shows little or no sign of slowing down. Consequences like consumer confidence better than at any point during the Obama administration. You mean like those kind of consequences?

    • @XYZ The current market is because of Obama and everything he did.

      • Of course, how could I forget how well a community organizer with basically zero experience in the private sector managed the economy.

    • Cutting taxes for the top during an expansion leads to a bubble, a bubble that will inevitably pop. Happened in the ’20s, happened in the ’00s. Same stupid idea, same stupid consequence.

  2. We now know how long it takes the American people to wake up to a clever political scam: Approximately 40 years. The article talks about Bush, let’s talk about the true master of disaster Reagan. Today’s lies and false claims come directly from the era of the Gipper, including my favorite “the tax cuts will pay for them selves with increased revenue!”. Never happened, never will as tax cuts for the rich are guaranteed “rocket fuel” for the deficit, not the economy. Like all things Bush the second time around was crude and poorly done, but still many fools bought it and inherited the “Great Recession” for being naïve and foolish. Trump and today’s Republicans play the game from a distinct disadvantage, their unpopular with staggering trust issues at many levels. Even worse the economy is in good shape and it makes a mockery of the calls for economic stimulation. And at this point no on, especially in Washington, thinks these bills would do much besides explode the deficit and provide a payoff for the billionaires and corporations they own. Dems would do best to wage war, not only on the house and senate bills, but on the lies that under pin Reaganomics, the greatest and most enduring scam of our age.

    • OK, what is the Demo’s plan, Wiky?

      • Raise taxes on the rich. Give away free stuff to everybody else. Blame corporations when it goes to hell.

        • Kindly show when this plan has “gone to hell.” Meanwhile, we can see the go-to-hell results of YOUR plan in Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana — basically everywhere it’s been tried.

          If the rich don’t pay more in taxes, historically, they have paid instead with their lives.

          • Not here. Country was founded by guys tired of paying too much tax for a government that kept f*ing them over. Luckily that spirit still alive and well.

  3. cassandram

    The fact is that “trickle down” economics simply has never worked anywhere it was tried. Ask Kansas and Louisiana. The fact is that this astonishing subsidy to large corporations comes exactly when these corporations are incredibly prosperous — making money and hoarding a ton of it. Even their CEOs note that they will use any money that comes from taxpayers to do stock buy backs, mergers and other stuff that puts money in their own pockets. If they had a reason to invest to increase production, they’ve already got money for that. So the GOP is adding 1.5 trillion to the debt — asking our kids to pay for more greed for corporations and making middle class taxpayers pay more in taxes.

  4. Oh Look! Two fools that buy the lie! Really dense at this point not to notice the total failure of Trickle Down Tax Cuts for the rich. As noted the “experiment” in Kansas proved a disaster, a disaster that forced the Kansas legislature to admit taxes had to be raised, but only after laying waste to the state. Tax the rich as we did in days gone by, it worked then and it will work again ( there ya’ go Alowblow). Unless you really want to be “experimented” and trickled on.

    • Again, What is your plan, from the Dems? I didn’t say I supported the current proposed plan.

      • “The Dems” don’t have “a” plan. Democrats aren’t like that. Different Democrats want different things, and since they’re not in a position to be listened to, they don’t have to agree, or even talk to each other, about what they want. They’re too fractious for that.

      • Raise taxes. Spend money. Lather, rinse, repeat.

  5. So… deficits and debt no longer matter? How are Republicans planning to spin that one?

    Is there an example of trickle down economics (cutting taxes for the rich while not adding to deficit or debt) working? I can’t think of one case.

    • Same way they spun it for Bush: ” a deficit of (insert enormous number here) is manageable” and then kick the can down the road for the Dems to handle.

  6. “deficits and debt no longer matter? How are Republicans planning to spin that one?”

    They don’t even bother anymore. They just lie and insist it’s the truth, because the base believes anything they’re told. Like zombies, they want for brains.

  7. Governor Carney eliminated the “death tax” and tried to eliminate all deductions including tuition and charitable giving. At least the GOP plan keeps the tax deduction for giving to charity. Carney is a huge disappointment.

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