Last week’s off off year midterm elections in New Jersey, Virginia and other random places were a definite sign that a pretty large Democratic wave is forming. Democrats unexpectedly won a host of Virginia delegate races, Delaware County, PA county races, and county races in New York State. That is the kind of thing that happens when a wave hits. You win the competitive races, all of them, along with some races that you always assumed were safe.
There are also some other signs predicting a strong Democratic wave next year:
- There are already now 25 House Republicans who have decided not to run for re-election, as compared to just 10 House Democrats.
- The Cook Political Report finds 16 House seats rated as “toss ups,” with 13 of them currently held by Republicans. In addition, there are many more Republican-held seats in the tenuous “lean” category.
- The RealClearPolitics polling average finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 9.7%. Harry Enten has shown the generic ballot, even more than a year out, “has historically been quite predictive of what will eventually occur in the following year.”
- President Trump’s approval rate is at both historic lows and all-time lows for his administration.
- Democrats are reporting historic early fundraising totals.
The GOP remains bitterly divided as a party and have been unable to pass a single piece of major legislation despite controlling the Congress and White House. It’s hard to go to the voters after two years to ask to remain the governing party when you have done nothing to govern.
Until the Demo’s screw up again, like forcing a crappy healthcare plan on everyone, that they call “Affordable”.
How can the Dems do anything but resist the shitty Republican “agenda” at this point? Even that is difficult with their limited power. In many ways, being the opposition is easy; that’s why we often see complete control for any one party only last a brief amount of time.
Another classic comment from Alowblow! Now revealed as the only fan of Trumpcare on earth!
There was an earlier Blue “wave” in 2006 as a revulsion against the Bush war on Iraq. Once the Dems regained control of both houses of Congress, they continued to fund what Obomba once called “a dumb war”.
But you still have to put in the work for a wave. There’s a bunch of focus on House seats currently held by a Republican in districts won by Hillary. And all of the downballots. So many people are stepping up to Run for Something, which is incredibly hopeful. On a national level, I wonder if Dems are presenting a governing vision to actually vote FOR. A Better Deal is OK, Saving the American Dream is better. Because that is really the work that is needed.
We’ll see if the “wave” actually comes in, but I suspect it will. It may not sweep the Republicans out of the house thanks to gerrymandering and voter suppression but it will at least come close. It’s the reason Republican congressman are headed for the exit, rare as hell when a party controls all branches of the government and a very good sign for the Dems.