Last week’s off off year midterm elections in New Jersey, Virginia and other random places were a definite sign that a pretty large Democratic wave is forming. Democrats unexpectedly won a host of Virginia delegate races, Delaware County, PA county races, and county races in New York State. That is the kind of thing that happens when a wave hits. You win the competitive races, all of them, along with some races that you always assumed were safe.
There are also some other signs predicting a strong Democratic wave next year:
- There are already now 25 House Republicans who have decided not to run for re-election, as compared to just 10 House Democrats.
- The Cook Political Report finds 16 House seats rated as “toss ups,” with 13 of them currently held by Republicans. In addition, there are many more Republican-held seats in the tenuous “lean” category.
- The RealClearPolitics polling average finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 9.7%. Harry Enten has shown the generic ballot, even more than a year out, “has historically been quite predictive of what will eventually occur in the following year.”
- President Trump’s approval rate is at both historic lows and all-time lows for his administration.
- Democrats are reporting historic early fundraising totals.
The GOP remains bitterly divided as a party and have been unable to pass a single piece of major legislation despite controlling the Congress and White House. It’s hard to go to the voters after two years to ask to remain the governing party when you have done nothing to govern.